VCNN’s football analyst takes a look at the betting angles for Tuesday’s two matches in the first leg of Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League.
Atlético Madrid vs Chelsea (in Bucharest, Romania)
In the Champions League knockout round home leg, Atletico Madrid is basically LeBron James on a fast break. Since the 2013–14 season, Los Rosiblancos have picked up 10 wins, three draws and zero losses and allowed a total of two goals in 13 home legs. The club ended the game 0–0 on three occasions.
Currently at BetMGM, Atlético is +175 on a three-way moneyline and a pick on the goal line. If you want to get push protection along the goal line, it will cost you a quarter (-125). Chelsea are +190 on the three-sided and +105 on the goal line. The draw ML is +190 and is set in two-jointed over total of -115.
If you are not willing to go behind a side pre-game, or have reasonable concerns about Atletico’s “home” leg being played in Bucharest instead of the Spanish capital due to Spain’s COVID-19 rules, There are two alternative approaches that recommend you wager the game, both overall.
If you are placing bets with a book that does not offer optional totals, the game is ripe for live betting. A fifteen-minute scorer play will definitely see the live total drop by about 1.5. From there, you can bet with a little more confidence knowing that if you stop the game at two you will avoid a push.
Alternatively, if you shop at a book like DraftKings that offers alternative totals and lean toward Under Eye Like, the pizza-money flyer is +600 at under 0.5 and +170 at under 1.5 Sounds attractive.
But given the history in Atletico’s home legs, I recommend rolling with Diego Simeon’s side at the goal line at -125.
Bayern Munich in Lario
If you would have asked me about this match a week earlier, I would have sincerely recommended splitting a unit on the Bayern Moneyline at -180 and even laying a goal on the money.
But in the following days, Bayern have dropped points against candidate-turned-Armenia and Bundesliga Darling Intrachat Frankfurt. Subsequently, the market has seen Bayernz at -180 on the Moneyline at BattleMMM from -180.
On buyback, Lazio currently sits at +333 on its moneyline, with a pricing of +300. If you like grabbing half a target with a Group F runner-up, the line currently sits at +125. For O / U, the bookies are currently looking at three goals totaling over -135.
Even after this past week’s struggle, I still lean with Bayern, but close to -140.
Lazio brings enough attacking progress to Cerro Immobile and Joaquin Correia to challenge Bayern’s high line and score at least once, but I’m worried about an inexperienced back line holding up against a Bayern team Hoon who scored three goals per game in the group stage.
Additionally, Bayern have won three out of four for the Italian opposition since the 2014–15 season and finished three points away from home in the Champions League in the 2017–18 group stage.
If you are placing bets in the East Coast markets, an alternative bet would be good value for me, Bayern to win and both teams to score at 18185.