[ad_1]
When the words “upside” or “potential” are thrown around in the fantasy world, one generally thinks of the 20-year-old prospect on the cusp of breaking into the majors.
You don’t immediately think of the 28-year-old who was the No. 2-overall pick in 2012. That, however, is where we still seem to be with Minnesota’s Byron Buxton: dreaming about what could (or should) be.
Roto Rage doesn’t need to sell you on Buxton’s ability — he’s a first-round talent with all the tools to help you win your fantasy league. That was evident in the way Buxton finished the 2021 season. Over his final 26 games, he hit .314 with nine homers, 13 RBIs, 27 runs, four steals and a 1.061 OPS. He finished the season with the second-lowest strikeout percentage (24.4) of his career, as well as career-best marks in average (.306), homers (19) and OPS (1.005) in just 61 games.
And therein lies the problem.
Buxton’s numbers always have to be justified by how well he did in a certain number of games (usually a relatively small number, like 61). We’re always talking about the “what ifs,” his “upside” or his immense talent, but none of that wins fantasy titles.
With an average draft position of 62.02, according to Fantasy Alarm, Buxton is being drafted as a top-20 outfielder. That’s a big price for a player who has played in more than 100 games in a season just once (2017).
Not including 2015 (when he got his first taste of the bigs over 46 games and hit .209 with a .576 OPS) or the COVID-shortened 2020 season (when he hit .254 with 13 homers and a .844 OPS in 39 games), Buxton has played in 408 games (81.6 per season) in the other five years and averaged 297 plate appearances.
Sorry, that’s not enough to justify the price tag.
Expecting the speedy Buxton to play a full season is like expecting your dog to respond with anything other than a bark or puppy-dog eyes when asked why they peed on your rug. Expecting his season to look anything like his 162-game projections from 2019-21, according to Baseball Reference (.277, 36 HRs, 91 RBIs, 22 SBs, 101 runs, .897 OPS), is a pipe dream.
So, can you justify using a fifth- or sixth-round pick on a player who might play half of Minnesota’s games? Not when you have the potential of St. Louis’ Tyler O’Neill (61.12) or the White Sox’s Eloy Jimenez (60.14) being available in the same spot. Not when you can wait three rounds to snag Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds (94.36), who has played in 134 or more games (and hit over .300) in his two non-COVID seasons, or bounce-back candidates in the form of two former MVPs — Christian Yelich (93.36) and Cody Bellinger (96.48).
Not when you can ensure your roster doesn’t have holes elsewhere by taking a top-10 shortstop, such as new Tiger Javier Baez (67) or new Ranger Corey Seager (67.96), or bolstering your rotation with a top-20 starting pitcher, such as Jack Flaherty (70.2) or Jose Berrios (72.68).
Minnesota might have invested seven years and $100 million in Buxton this offseason, but unless they secretly agreed to use some of that money to help Buxton undergo surgery that would make him half-man, half-machine (a la RoboCop or Cyborg), you’re still dealing with the same injury-prone player who has been burning fantasy owners since 2016.
Buxton’s talent is tantalizing, but he is the poster boy for high-risk fantasy options. Though the reward could be huge, Roto Rage is steering clear until he proves he can stay healthy.
Team Name of the Week
Triston the Night Away
Outfielders
- Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
- Juan Soto, Was
- Ronald Acuna Jr., Atl
- Bryce Harper, Phi
- Kyle Tucker, Hou
- Mookie Betts, LAD
- Mike Trout, LAA
- Aaron Judge, NYY
- Luis Robert, CWS
- Yordan Alvarez, Hou
- Teoscar Hernandez, Tor
- Starling Marte, NYM
- Cedric Mullins, Bal
- George Springer, Tor
- Eloy Jimenez, CWS
- Tyler O’Neill, StL
- Nick Castellanos, FA
- Whit Merrifield,KC
- Randy Arozarena, TB
- Byron Buxton, Min
- Ketel Marte,Ari
- Bryan Reynolds, Pit
- J.D. Martinez, Bos
- Brandon Lowe., TB
- Cody Bellinger, LAD
- Jesse Winker, Cin
- Christian Yelich, Mil
- Giancarlo Stanton, NYY
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tor
- Kris Bryant, FA
- Mitch Haniger, Sea
- Ryan Mountcastle, Bal
- Jared Walsh=LAA
- Trent Grisham=SD
- Franmil Reyes, Cle
- Tommy Edman, StL
- Kyle Schwarber, FA
- Austin Meadows ,TB
- Jarred Kelenic, Sea
- Josh Bell, Was
- Alex Verdugo, Bos
- Chris Taylor, LAD
- Michael Conforto, FA
- Avisail Garcia, Mia
- Hunter Renfroe, Mil
- Andrew Benintendi, KC
- Joey Gallo, NYY
- Ramon Laureano, Oak
- Adolis Garcia, Tex
- Alex Kirilloff, Min
- Jorge Soler, FA
- Dylan Carlson, StL
- Austin Hays, Bal
- Michael Brantley, Hou
- Eddie Rosario, FA
- Robbie Grossman, Det
- Charlie Blackmon, Col
- Ian Happ, ChC
- Adam Duvall, Atl
- Raimel Tapia, Col
- Akil Baddoo, Det
- AJ Pollock, LAD
- Daulton Varsho, Ari
- Jo Adell, LAA
- Andrew Vaughn, CWS
- Mark Canha, NYM
- Tommy Pham, FA
- Myles Straw, Cle
- Marcell Ozuna, Atl
- Anthony Santander, Bal
- Harrison Bader, StL
- Gavin Lux, LAD
- Wil Myers, SD
- Kiké Hernandez, Bos
- Max Kepler, Min
- Amed Rosario, Cle
- Mike Yastrzemski, SF
- Kyle Lewis, Sea
- Brandon Nimmo, NYM
- Jeff McNeil, NYM
- Garrett Hampson, Col
- Adam Frazier, Sea
- Randal Grichuk, Tor
- Jesus Sanchez, Mia
- Tyler Naquin, Cin
- David Peralta, Ari
- Manuel Margot, TB
- Josh Rojas, Ari
- Patrick Wisdom, ChC
- Joc Pederson, FA
- Andrew McCutchen, FA
- Cavan Biggio, Tor
- Lorenzo Cain, Mil
- Lane Thomas, Was
- Luis Arraez, Min
- Connor Joe, Col
- Rafael Ortega, ChC
- Dominic Smith, NYM
- LaMonte Wade Jr., SF
- Vidal Brujan, TB
- Garrett Cooper, Mia
- Willie Calhoun, Tex
- Pavin Smith, Ari
- Jarren Duran, Bos
- Nick Senzel, Cin
- Victor Robles, Was
- Brandon Marsh, LAA
- Ben Gamel, Pit
- Yoshi Tsutsugo, Pit
- Harold Ramirez, ChC
- Michael A. Taylor, KC
- Hunter Dozier, KC
- Kole Calhoun, Tex
- Gavin Sheets, CWS
- Sam Hilliard, Col
- Aaron Hicks, NYY
- Julio Rodriguez, Sea
- Kyle Isbel, KC
- Bryan De La Cruz, Mia
- Dylan Moore, Sea
[ad_2]