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In advance of this weekend’s EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix, Nick Giffen of The Action Network is here to give his best bets (video above).
Giffen is choosing to target two outrights markets in addition to a derivative play. He explains the first outright – Joey Logano at +2250 – is more of a value bet.
“Last season, Logano had four top-seven finishes in seven road-course races,” Giffen says. “That includes a second-place finish, a third-place finish, and a fourth-place finish.”
Giffen is also seeing an edge on Logano, whose aforementioned third-place finish came in this race last year at the Circuit of the Americas. Logano is priced as the 12th-likeliest driver to win, but Giffen’s model makes him seventh.
As for his derivative bet, Giffen is backing Kevin Harvick to finish in the top-10 at +150.
Giffen is choosing to back Harvick because of his record on road courses. He has two career victories in road course races and has finished inside the top-10 in half of his starts on such tracks.
Plus, Giffen explains there are early positive signs from this year.
“In the three non-drafting races this year, Harvick has finished 12th or better in each,” Giffen explains.
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As far as Giffen’s pick to win the race, though, it’s simultaneously someone worth a bet: William Byron at +1750.
“Byron is actually the third most-likely to win per my statistical model,” Giffen details. “But..he only has the 10th-best odds to win.”
Given Byron led nearly a quarter of the laps at the most recent course race, Giffen believes he’s a good bet to claim victory in Texas this weekend.
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