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We’ve got ourselves a classic relegation six-pointer in the English Premier League on Wednesday as 19th-place Burnley host 17th-place Everton at Turf Moor. The Clarets trail the Toffees by four points, so this is as close to a must-win match as you can get for both clubs, though Everton would probably sign up for a draw, as well.
Everton vs. Burnley odds
As for the odds, Burnley comes into the match as lukewarm +160 favorites, with Everton checking in at +195 and the draw at +220. The market, the stats, and the situation all point to a similar narrative: This should be a tight contest between two badly struggling sides.
Everton vs. Burnley prediction
With just one win and three draws in 14 matches, Everton is the worst team in the Premier League on the road. And even though their -12.7 expected goal differential away from Goodison Park is terrible, it does suggest that the Toffees have been a bit unlucky in their away matches this season. According to Understat’s expected points (xPoints) metric, Everton should have closer to 12 points from their 14 road encounters this season.
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The Toffees can also take some solace in a 2-1 defeat at West Ham over the weekend. Although the scoreline and the xG battle didn’t go their way, Frank Lampard’s side was improved from their previous away matches where they were shambolic.
Another silver lining for Everton to grasp onto is that Burnley has been dreadful at home this season. The general perception about trips to Turf Moor is that they are going to be tough no matter where Burnley is in the table, but that hasn’t been the case this season as the Clarets are 2-6-6 at home and have scored just 10 times in those 14 matches.
Everton has been at their best this season when they’ve been healthy enough to play three in the midfield and with Fabian Delph fit, the Toffees should be able to control the middle of the park with Delph, Abdoulaye Doucoure and either Dele Alli or Alex Iwobi. Delph’s presence should be a huge benefit, as Everton’s back-line has been full of mistakes this season and needs protection.
Delph also allows Doucoure some freedom to play his best role as a box-to-box midfielder, which should make Everton’s life easier progressing the ball up the pitch. That should also mean that Richarlison, Anthony Gordon, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin won’t have to come deep to get the ball and Everton can spring their attacks from a better position up the field.
Even with their litany of injuries, Everton is the stronger side in this matchup. They’ve got plenty of attacking talent and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison, and Anthony Gordon should be able to find success against a Burnley defense that ranks 16th in non-penalty expected goals against and allows more shots per 90 minutes than any other side in the Premier League.
And Burnley should have some success going forward, too. The Clarets have lost four games on the spin by a combined score of 8-0, but this Everton defense has been shipping goals for fun over the entire season. Usually, these relegation six-pointers profile as rock fights, with neither team wanting to make the fatal mistake, but this one could be surprisingly bountiful.
Everton’s play-making and finishing talent should win out in a game that should be more open than the odds suggest, so there is some betting value on the Toffees at +195. The price on both teams to score also seems cheap at -115. And if you’re feeling bubbly, a same-game parlay on Everton to win and the total to go over 3.5 goals at 10/1 could be worth a punt.
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