March Insanity is at all times filled with surprises, like Farleigh Dickinson taking down Purdue to grow to be simply the second No. 16 seed ever to oust a No. 1 seed.
Or Princeton topping No. 2 Arizona, marking the third straight 12 months a No. 15 seed has gained a first-round matchup.
It really is insanity!
However, March Insanity is not only relegated to varsity basketball. There may be loads of insanity occurring in fantasy baseball drafts.
The insanity begins with Michael Harris — who was the 2022 Nationwide League Rookie of the 12 months after hitting 19 homers with 64 RBIs, 75 runs, 20 stolen bases and a .297/.339/.514 slash line in 114 video games for the Braves.
With a stat line like that, there may be sure to be pleasure, proper?
Properly, possibly a bit an excessive amount of pleasure.
In keeping with Fantasy Alarm, Harris’ common draft place is 37.87, however there are websites which have his ADP as excessive as 24.8 (Underdog Fantasy) or 26.1 (RealTime Fantasy). He’s at 33.3 at Yahoo.
Which means, in some circumstances, Harris is being drafted as a top-10 outfielder or among the many prime 25 total.
That could be a steep worth for a participant who has performed simply 114 video games. There isn’t a arguing the instruments he brings to the desk (and he actually does carry a complete software bag), however there are issues that make Roto Rage imagine Harris can be superb, however in the end not stay as much as that lofty draft standing.
Amongst gamers with a minimal of 400 plate appearances, Harris’ 41.7 % chase price (swings at pitches outdoors of the strike zone) was the twelfth worst within the majors. That aided in his 4.8 % stroll price, which was the 18th-worst within the league, and his 24.3 % strikeout price (the Twenty third-worst mark within the NL).
Harris hit .297, however his far-too-high .361 BABIP signifies luck was on his aspect — and it’s onerous to imagine that quantity is sustainable, particularly when his anticipated batting common (.268) was practically 30 factors decrease than his precise common and his insane 56.2 ground-ball price was the fourth-highest within the majors.
Oh, his anticipated slugging proportion (.460) was greater than 50 factors decrease than his precise .514 slugging proportion. These numbers scream one factor: regression.
How about Harris’ struggles in opposition to left-handed pitching?
In 135 plate appearances in opposition to lefties final season, he hit .238 with 13 runs, 41 strikeouts (30.4 % strikeout price), a .649 OPS and simply seven walks.
He additionally had a .337 BABIP in opposition to southpaws. That’s problematic.
The issue with Harris isn’t his upside or his expertise, it’s his present price ticket. It’s simply too excessive. As a way to get an excellent return on him being drafted as a top-25 participant, he has to duplicate his 2022 success (after which some), and that’s no straightforward activity.
There are simply too many purple flags to pay a premium worth for an inexperienced participant who has numbers pointing towards regression.
Roto Rage would quite goal extra confirmed outfielders — corresponding to Kyle Schwarber (39.69), Randy Arozarena (47.84) and Cedric Mullins (51.64)
Different outfielders to be cautious of are:
Teoscar Hernandez (76.31) goes from hitter-friendly Toronto to pitcher-haven Seattle.
That’s not one thing fantasy managers ought to be contemplating luck.
Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds’ (77.31) is a very good participant in a foul state of affairs. He simply doesn’t have sufficient assist within the Pirates’ lineup to present fantasy house owners the numbers he’s able to.
He can be good, however unlikely to be really nice … except he lastly getting traded.
The Mets’ Starling Marte (92.29) is an oft-injured 34-year-old with declining dash pace who had offseason surgical procedure and has missed 30 or extra video games in all however one season since 2016. You do the mathematics.
Washington’s Joey Meneses (182.71) has Frank Schwindel (a la 2021 with the Cubs) sort of vibes — a profession minor leaguer who received a chance to play on a workforce going nowhere and have become a late-season fantasy hero.
He has received a robust swing, however small pattern dimension plus his .371 BABIP raises questions.
Cleveland’s Oscar Gonzalez (188.23) hit .296 with 11 homers, 43 RBIs, 39 runs and a .789 OPS in 91 video games.
It was a stable debut, however his 3.4 % stroll price was within the backside 1 % of the league (as was his 48.3 % chase price) and his .345 BABIP is an effective indication regression is coming.
Outfielders
- Ronald Acuña Jr.=Atl
- Aaron Choose=NYY
- Julio Rodriguez=Sea
- Juan Soto=SD
- Kyle Tucker=Hou
- Mookie Betts=LAD
- Mike Trout=LAA
- Yordan Alvarez=Hou
- Fernando Tatis Jr.=SD
- Luis Robert=CWS
- Randy Arozarena=TB
- Kyle Schwarber=Phi
- Cedric Mullins=Bal
- Adolis Garcia=Tex
- Eloy Jimenez=CWS
- Daulton Varsho=Tor
- Michael Harris II=Atl
- Corbin Caroll=Ari
- George Springer=Tor
- Byron Buxton=Min
- Bryan Reynolds=Pit
- Starling Marte=NYM
- Steven Kwan=Cle
- Tyler O’Neill=StL
- Teoscar Hernandez=Sea
- Seiya Suzuku=ChC
- Anthony Santander=Bal
- Kris Bryant=Col
- Nick Castellanos=Phi
- Christian Yelich=Mil
- Giancarlo Stanton=NYY
- Jake McCarthy=Ari
- Ian Happ=ChC
- Taylor Ward=LAA
- Andrew Vaughn=CWS
- Brandon Nimmo=NYM
- Mitch Haniger=SF
- Hunter Renfroe=LAA
- MJ Melendez=KC
- Jeff McNeil=NYM
- Lars Nootbaar=StL
- Jordan Walker=StL
- Alex Verdugo=Bos
- Masataka Yoshida=Bos
- Cody Bellinger=ChC
- Oscar Gonzalez=Cle
- Riley Greene=Det
- Ramon Laureano=Oak
- Andrew Benintendi=CWS
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.=Ari
- Wil Myers=Cin
- Bryan De La Cruz=Mia
- Seth Brown=Oak
- Jarred Kelenic=Sea
- Esteury Ruiz=Oak
- Whit Merrifield=Tor
- Jorge Soler=Mia
- Adam Duvall=Bos
- Austin Meadows=Det
- Michael Conforto=SF
- Alex Kiriloff=Min
- Garrett Mitchell=Mil
- Jesse Winker=Mil
- Joc Pederson=SF
- Trey Mancini=ChC
- Brendan Donovan=StL
- Austin Hays=Bal
- Jake Fraley=Cin
- Brandon Marsh=Phi
- Chris Taylor=LAD
- Charlie Blackmon=Col
- Avisail Garcia=Mia
- Max Kepler=Min
- Marcell Ozuna=Atl
- Juan Yepez=StL
- Lane Thomas=Was
- Oscar Colas=CWS
- Edward Olivares=KC
- Manuel Margot=TB
- Harrison Bader=NYY
- Trent Grisham=SD
- Andrew McCutchen=Pit
- Oswaldo Cabrera=NYY
- Bubba Thompson=Tex
- Kike Hernandez=Bos
- Randal Grichuk=Col
- Michael Brantley=Hou
- AJ Pollock=Sea
- Mike Yastrzemski=SF
- TJ Friedl=Cin
- Jose Siri=TB
- Matt Vierling=Dert
- Dylan Carlson=StL
- Mark Canha=NYM
- Jose Lowe=TB
- Harold Ramirez=TB
- LaMonte Wade Jr.=SF
- Alek Thomas=Ari
- Sal Frelick=Mil
- Nolan Jones=Col
Staff Identify of The Week
LuxYuli Tax
Submitted by Ralph LaNoce