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Our college basketball betting expert is here to offer up his best predictions and picks for Rutgers vs. Notre Dame in the First Four Wednesday at 9:10 p.m. EST.
In the final game of the First Four, a sleeper out of the Big Ten and the team with the second-best record in the ACC will duke it out for a spot on the 11 line. The winner between Rutgers and Notre Dame will advance to play sixth-seed Alabama on Friday. Rutgers made the field on the strength of its six Quadrant 1 victories, one against each of the top teams in the Big Ten.
Notre Dame had a better overall season, earning the second seed in the ACC Tournament before bowing out early to eventual champ Virginia Tech and sweating it out on Selection Sunday. The Fighting Irish also have better metrics than the Scarlet Knights but fared much worse against top competition. They only went 2-8 in Quad 1, though one of those wins came over Kentucky.
Rutgers vs. Notre Dame predictions
- Rutgers to win moneyline @ +100 via BetMGM
- Total Points: Under 131.5 @ -110 via BetMGM
- Paul Atkinson under 7.5 rebounds @ -106 via FanDuel Sportsbook
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Rutgers vs. Notre Dame
Seeing Scarlet
Rutgers got hot at the right time in mid-February, knocking off Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois in a row. The run showed that when the Scarlet Knights’ defense is on its game, they’re a hard out for anybody. If you’re concerned that they can only win with their home-court advantage, look to their road wins at Wisconsin and Indiana — or even last year’s first-round 10-over-7 upset of Clemson on a neutral court.
Notre Dame is a solid team all around, but when faced with the other top teams in its conference — Duke, Wake, Virginia Tech — it rarely came out on top. Crucially, the Irish rank last in the ACC in total turnovers forced (9.9 per game), blocked shots (1.9 per game) and steals (5.1 per game). We believe this will allow Rutgers to get into a rhythm on offense early and create a gap Notre Dame won’t be able to overcome.
Our pick: Rutgers to win outright @ +100 with BetMGM.
Defense wins… First Four games
As for the score, both Rutgers and Notre Dame have played in a variety of games both high-scoring and low-scoring this year. But generally speaking, these are two good defensive teams who play at slower-than-average paces. Rutgers allows 65.8 points per game and Notre Dame yields 66.8. Per KenPom.com, Notre Dame ranks 250th and Rutgers 289th in adjusted tempo.
These should indicate that scoring will be at a premium. The over/under is set fairly low; a final score of 68-64, for example, would be enough to hit the over. But also keep in mind that teams playing in the First Four are returning to the court on quicker turnarounds after arriving in Dayton, and early-tournament nerves may lead to more missed shots. We’ll take the under.
Our pick: Under 131.5 points @ -110 with BetMGM
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Paul Atkinson Jr. is Notre Dame’s leading rebounder with 7.0 per game, but his totals lately have been boom or bust. He had 15 on Feb. 9 against Louisville and 17 on Feb. 23 against Syracuse, for example, but he’s also grabbed six or fewer in six of his last eight games.
His main opponent on the boards in this game will be Rutgers center Clifford Omoruyi, averaging 7.9 per game this season, including 2.2 per game on the offensive glass. Notre Dame’s team rebounding margin is middling, too, at 0.7; Atkinson doesn’t have much help in the interior.
Our pick: Paul Atkinson to grab under 7.5 rebounds @ -106 with FanDuel.
Rutgers vs Notre Dame Odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
| Total Points 131.5 | Team | Spread | Moneyline |
| Over -110 | Notre Dame | (-1.5) -105 | -120 |
| Under -110 | Rutgers | (+1.5) -115 | +100 |
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