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As the NBA season tips off, Post writers Marc Berman, Brian Lewis, Ian O’Connor and Mike Vaccaro take a shot at the most pressing questions:
Biggest question of the season
Berman: Not to be too local, but the nation is captivated by Kyrie Irving and whether he gets a shot to play. Pun intended. Though the Nets are second fiddle to the Knicks even in their home borough of Brooklyn, the Irving soap opera is an international sporting issue. The rebel point guard is making a stand against vaccine mandates while hurting the Nets’ chances of finishing No. 1 in the Eastern Conference.
Lewis: Will Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving and Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons ever play for their current teams? Or get shipped to new ones? And when?
O’Connor: What will become of Simmons and the Sixers this year? Perhaps a better question is this: Can Doc Rivers or any other coach fix this tremendous talent with a fatal flaw in his game?
Vaccaro: Will the Nets have Kyrie for half a season? More? Less? They can win a lot games without him, but make the Finals? Not likely.
This team will be better than expected
Berman: The Minnesota franchise has collapsed since Tom Thibodeau was fired in January 2019. The Timberwolves recently axed GM Gersson Rosas, causing more doomsday predictions. But I like this nucleus and they will finally compete for a top-10 play-in berth. Point guard D’Angelo Russell, Karl-Anthony Towns and on-the-rise 2020 No. 1 pick Anthony Edwards are a neat trio. Jaden McDaniels is a talent and killed the Knicks one game late last season. The infusion of hard-nosed defender Patrick Beverley will instill some toughness. Malik Beasley is a top-notch bench scorer. Plus, A-Rod is the new part-owner, adding pizzazz. If the Wolves are terrible again, KAT figures to finally ask for a trade. Knicks fans should monitor — because team brass is.
Lewis: The Heat. They have just fifth-best odds to win the East, but could end up hosting a playoff round this season.
O’Connor: The Pelicans. Assuming he stays relatively healthy, Zion Williamson will be ready in Year 3 to make his playoff debut and carry last year’s disappointing team without Lonzo Ball’s help.
Vaccaro: It was hard to tell if the Pelicans hated Stan Van Gundy more than Van Gundy hated coaching them. Look for Zion & Co. to thrive under Willie Green.
This team will be worse than expected
Berman: Judging from his ugly exit in San Antonio, can’t imagine Kawhi Leonard rushing back from a torn ACL to aid the Clippers. Without Leonard, this might be a club scraping to avoid the play-in event. Relying on Eric Bledsoe as starting point guard is not the recipe to become a top-six team in the mighty West.
Lewis: The Knicks raised expectations after finishing fourth in the East, and could be better this season yet still miss the playoffs.
O’Connor: The Suns. They will remain a contender, but last year’s long, draining run to the consolation prize could have an impact on them. And, of course, Chris Paul is a year older.
Vaccaro: Everyone is expecting an automatic turnaround season from the Celtics, but there was a lot wrong with them last year beyond Kemba Walker. Lots to prove.
This player will emerge this season
Berman: Last season you’d be hailed a genius if you selected Julius Randle. In 2021-22, I’m taking another Kentucky alum in combo guard Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers’ first-round pick in 2020. Maxey has a lot of scoring flair but was overshadowed by his Kentucky backcourt mate, the Knicks’ Immanuel Quickley, in their respective rookie years. Maxey was taken four picks ahead of Quickley at 21. With Ben Simmons’ future in the balance, Maxey will get a clear pathway to reaching another level.
Lewis: Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. After averaging 14.4 points last season, the 22-year-old from Plainfield (N.J.) could easily vault well past 20.
O’Connor: RJ Barrett. This is his year to show he will be a legitimate star in this league, and if the Knicks are to take that next step as a postseason winner it needs to happen.
Vaccaro: RJ Barrett took an extraordinary leap between his rookie and sophomore season and celebrated by going right back in the gym. Early hints point toward more upward elevation.
This player will regress this season
Berman: Chris Paul’s first season in Phoenix was storybook and netted him a new $120 million pact as he led the Suns to the NBA Finals with guile and smarts. But he’s 36 years old and that wild ride into late July has to take a physical toll, especially at his position. Paul avoided serious injuries last season but may be due for a letdown.
Lewis: Julius Randle will have a tough time repeating his Most Improved Player form, but Andrew Wiggins will show outright regression. After career-highs in field goals and 3-point shooting, he’ll fall back to taking inefficient long midrange shots and regress to the mean.
O’Connor: Toughest question of the bunch, and one I’d prefer not to answer. In jest I will predict that Nikola Jokic won’t win a second straight MVP.
Vaccaro: He will still be an excellent player for a long time. But it will be interesting to see if Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton keeps getting better at the same clip or takes a step back.
If I were this coach, I’d be worried about my status
Berman: Frank Vogel has beaten the odds and lasted two seasons, but if the new-look Lakers are in a funk, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony will likely bring in new blood.
Lewis: Luke Walton. He’s well-liked, but Sacramento was dead last in defensive efficiency, and GM Monte McNair didn’t hire him. Walton’s seat is hot before opening night.
O’Connor: Walton. Five seasons as an NBA head coach, five straight losing seasons and 70 games under .500 for his career.
Vaccaro: Steve Nash. Everything was puppies and lollipops last season in his maiden voyage, but if the Nets do struggle finding themselves, the track record says it isn’t the players who’ll suffer.
When the trade deadline is over, Damian Lillard will be…
Berman: The Blazers aren’t going to meet Lillard’s expectations, so this story isn’t over. If it’s not the Knicks, then Oakland-bred Lillard looks to go back to his hometown with the Warriors.
Lewis: A Portland Trail Blazer. Now, the summer could be a different deal.
O’Connor: A member of the Trail Blazers. I think he’ll give Chauncey Billups one full year before trying to work his way to the Knicks in the summer.
Vaccaro: In Portland. The Blazers know how fundamental he is to their viability and their success. They’ll listen but won’t be blown away by a blockbuster.
This will end up being a big story
Berman: The National Basketball Players Association is proud of its vaccination rate, but anything less than 100 percent is a story — case by case. And if Kyrie Irving can’t play in New York because of its restrictions, why can visiting unvaccinated players such as Bradley Beal compete? His wife was sitting in the first row in Washington Saturday in a preseason game versus the Knicks. The vagaries of the final pandemic stages can still turn into a powder keg as rules are fluid in places like New York and California.
Lewis: Could other cities follow New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles in instituting COVID-19 vaccine mandates?
O’Connor: Irving’s eventual return to the Nets, via vaccination or a relaxed mandate. The Nets knew what they were getting when they signed Irving, but knowing it and living it are two very different things.
Vaccaro: How do the feel-good Bucks handle their post-championship hangover? Do they build on that and become a monster in the East or will they spin their wheels, as so many others have?
MVP prediction
Berman: Kevin Durant. The Nets will still be a monster with Durant and James Harden. If Irving misses more than half the season, that’s more touches — and points — for KD, who realizes he can reach a new level of superstardom if he carries Brooklyn despite the Kyrie Circus.
Lewis: Kevin Durant will have to do even more with Irving out, and edge out Dallas’ Luka Doncic.
O’Connor: Kevin Durant. No matter what becomes of Irving, KD will prove again that he’s the world’s best player and (barely) beat out Luka Doncic.
Vaccaro: Kevin Durant. So much extra will be on his skinny shoulders without Kyrie, but he seems to thrive in such instances.
NBA Finals prediction
Berman: Nuggets over Nets in 7. Denver continues to be overlooked and defeats the Nets, who will have Kyrie Irving by then.
Lewis: Nets over Lakers in 7. This could’ve been more authoritative, like a gentleman’s sweep. But the loss of Irving is going to make Brooklyn’s margin for error razor thin.
O’Connor: Lakers over Heat in 6. Miami has a strong bounce-back season with Kyle Lowry, but not strong enough to overcome LeBron and his fellow graybeards in LA. Melo finally gets his ring.
Vaccaro: Bucks over Lakers in 7. Hopefully the playoffs won’t resemble a M*A*S*H triage unit as they did last year, and we can see a Giannis-LeBron battle for the ages.
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