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There is a clear headliner on Monday night’s four-game NHL card: Toronto at Tampa Bay. And if the oddsmakers are to be believed, we should be in for a doozy at Amalie Arena with the Lightning currently sitting as -130 favorites on home ice.
Had this game been played a week ago, this line likely would look a little different. But an impressive four-game winning streak for the Leafs against Florida, Boston, Winnipeg and Philadelphia combined with some inconsistent performances from the Lightning has put these two teams on level pegging in the eyes of the betting market.
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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: Lightning +1.5 (-225) vs. Maple Leafs -1.5 (+180)
Moneyline: Lightning (+110) vs. Maple Leafs (-135)
Total: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110)
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs predictions
But instead of focusing on the moneyline for Monday’s tilt in Tampa, bettors should take a gander on the Over/Under, which currently sits at 6.5, with the under juiced to -115.
To most people, a matchup between the Leafs and Lightning screams “bet the over!” Only Colorado averages more goals per game than Toronto’s 3.76 and Tampa isn’t all that far behind in ninth with 3.32 tallies per contest. The Leafs have the league’s best power play, while Tampa’s is a respectable 12th. Both teams also rank inside the top-10 in expected goals created at 5-on-5. These are two gifted offensive teams that can ruin an under-ticket in the blink of an eye.
That should be easier said than done on Monday night, however, as these two defenses can be counted among the best in the circuit at preventing high-danger scoring chances. Tampa Bay has the better mark in that metric on the season, but Toronto’s defense is trending in the right direction over the last 10 games.
Part of Toronto’s tightening up on defense may have something to do with protecting their ineffective goaltenders, but either way, it’s been an impressive stretch for a team that was looking a little leaky through the dog days of January and February.
The goaltending matchup on Monday night is projected to be Andrei Vasilevskiy against Jack Campbell. Vasilevskiy has done his thing one again this season, posting a .919 saver percentage and a +26.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 53 appearances. Under bettors can usually always feel confident when Ocho-Ocho is in the blue paint for the Bolts.
Campbell is a different story entirely. After a dominant first two months of the season, the 30-year-old capitulated through the middle part of the season before going on the injured list with a rib issue. Campbell made his return from IR on Saturday night in a decent showing against the Flyers, though he still allowed three goals.
Even if you can’t trust Campbell completely, you can at least feel confident that the Leafs’ defense will make life easy on their netminder. Toronto is allowing just 9.3 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over its last 10 games. If the Leafs continue their stingy ways, Campbell’s inconsistencies shouldn’t be a huge deal.
With an in-form defense on one end of the ice and one of the world’s best goaltenders backing up a solid unit on the other side, the ingredients for a bet on the under are present on Monday night.
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