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The Miami Marlins and San Francisco Giants will get their seasons underway on Friday at 4:35 p.m. ET, with the Giants sitting as -135 favorites and the Fish coming back as +115 underdogs. The Over/Under is set at 7.5, so oddsmakers are expecting a pitchers’ duel between San Francisco’s Logan Webb and Miami’s Sandy Alcantara.
Webb and Alcantara are both trendy Cy Young sleepers coming into the season, and it’s pretty easy to see why bettors would want to back them at 25/1 odds.
Only Corbin Burnes — the regning Cy Young winner — beat Webb’s 2.79 xFIP last season and only Framber Valdez had a higher groundball rate than the Giants’ Opening Day starter. The rest of Webb’s 2021 statline sparkled, as the 25-year-old pitched to a 3.03 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.59 K/9 and 0.55 HR/9 in 148 1/3 innings.
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While Webb’s numbers were boosted by playing for a 107-win team, Alcantara performed admirably for the Marlins, who finished 67-95. By season’s end, Alcantara ranked in the 98th percentile in chase rate and led all pitchers (min. 100 innings pitched) in average fastball velocity.
Alcantara isn’t all fastball, though, and was able to rely on his secondary pitches to keep batters off balance. That arsenal helped the 26-year-old notch over 200 punchouts in 205 2/3 innings pitched.
One similarity between Webb and Alcantara is that neither pitcher walked a lot of batters in 2021. Of pitchers who hurled at least 100 innings, Webb ranked 28th with a 2.18 BB/9, while Alcantara was right behind him in 30th at 2.19 walks per nine.
Betting on the 2022 MLB Season?
With baserunners projecting to be at a premium in this matchup and both starters working in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in early April, a play on the under looks quite enticing. But since neither of these bullpens instills much confidence — FanGraphs rates Miami’s relief core as the 16th-best in the MLB and San Francisco’s at 22nd — it may be wise to take the bullpens out of this equation and bet the F5 Under at 3.5 at -110 or better.
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