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VSiN’s NFL expert offers some betting recommendations for Week 17.
Panthers at Saints (-6.5, 37.5)
The Panthers just might be beyond repair, but at least Sam Darnold represents an upgrade over Cam Newton. Newton’s return was a desperate ploy to regain some sort of relevance by tapping into the past, but it was clear pretty much right away that the former MVP had nothing left in the tank.
The Saints will get Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian back this week, which represents a huge upgrade over Ian Book, but why would anybody want to lay almost a touchdown with the Saints? Even with Hill and Siemian for most of the action, this is a team that has exceeded 17 points once in the last five games. That came against the Jets and happened because the Saints had three fourth-quarter scoring drives of 51 or fewer yards.
If nothing else, Carolina still has a stout defense. In a game in which scoring opportunities seem rather limited, getting a 6.5-point head start with a good defensive team against a suspect offense seems like a good investment.
Pick: Panthers +6.5.
Giants at Bears (-6.5, 36.5)
These are a couple of teams playing out the string. One seems a lot more engaged than the other, but that team is also nearly a touchdown favorite.
My focus in this game is on the total. It is one of the lowest totals that you will see for an NFL game in the current era, but one that is very much deserved. The Giants have scored 13.6 ppg in their last eight games, many of those played with either an injured Daniel Jones or some combination of Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm.
The Bears got some Nick Foles magic last week, but still managed just 4.6 yards per play. These are two of the worst offenses in the NFL in the YPP department. The weather won’t help. The forecast calls for a high temperature below 20 with a little bit of wind and wind chills around zero. I’m not sure either team will be excited to go out and play in this kind of weather. These are two bad-weather cities, but this is pretty extreme.
Pick: Under 36.5.
Jaguars at Patriots (-16.5, 41.5)
Bill Belichick’s dominance against rookie quarterbacks has been brought up with every opportunity against a first-year signal caller. It’s almost not even worth mentioning anymore. What is worth mentioning is that the Jaguars are absolutely playing out the string on a season from hell and will now do so without their best offensive player in James Robinson.
Trevor Lawrence has been set up for failure and the Jaguars organization should be ashamed. Not only was Urban Meyer a terrible hire, but also Lawrence is extremely limited with what he has to work with at wide receiver and the play designs and route concepts have had guys running into each other or not separated to create throwing lanes.
Maybe New England doesn’t score enough to cover this enormous spread. Maybe the Patriots are deeply flawed, as the last few weeks have suggested. The New England defense, however, is in a “get right” spot against an offense that shows no signs of being efficient or effective against any team, let alone one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Pick: Jaguars Team Total Under 12.5.
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