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Jim Caldwell, the Lions’ winningest coach of the 21st century, lasted just two seasons in the NFL equivalent of an arranged marriage.
Some might say he’s fortunate to have stayed so long.
Lovie Smith, who was a NFL Coach of the Year and led the Bears to a Super Bowl, lasted just one season in his forced setup. Same goes for Chuck Pagano, who was extended no courtesy for coaching with two backup quarterbacks as Colts great Andrew Luck missed an entire season.
The only relevant question with the Giants entering the final week of the season is head coach Joe Judge’s fate. Will he be retained despite an inevitable change from general manager Dave Gettleman, as was the strong feeling around the team before this five-game losing streak? Will co-owner John Mara elect to fully clean house for the second time in five years? Or will the decision be left to Gettleman’s successor?
Since 2000, there have been 104 general managers hired, according to The Post’s research gathered from Pro Football Reference and FootballPerspective.com. More than half of the moves were accompanied by a change in the head coach, including those acting in dual-capacity. A smaller sample size (since 2014) reveals an even split among 15 new GMs who inherited a head coach and 15 new GMs who started fresh.
If the Giants arrange a marriage with Judge, what can be expected?
When it worked
Andy Reid (Chiefs) and Mike Holmgren (Seahawks) both won a Super Bowl after a fired GM, and Tom Coughlin (Giants) won two after staying in place through Ernie Accorsi’s retirement. Marty Schottenheimer (Chargers), Mike Shanahan (Broncos) and Jeff Fisher (Titans) won at a high rate before and after a GM change, though all three were eventually fired by a GM who was not in place when they were hired.
Ron Rivera survived two GM changes with the Panthers — from the fired Marty Hurney to Gettleman (they went to a Super Bowl together) back to Hurney — before he was fired. Rivera is the outlier in this group — as Judge would be — because his record after two seasons (13-19) justified a change more than it foretold two Coach of the Year awards. The others had more established résumés when transition came.
There is no lost irony that the best argument for keeping Judge comes from an example also tied to Gettleman.
When it wasted time
The risk if the Giants elect to keep Judge is that creating separate timelines leads to a wasted year. A GM who wants to enter a four-year rebuild won’t always make decisions in the interest of a hot-seat head coach and vice versa.
There are 11 examples where an inherited coach was fired during or after his first season, including Smith, whose job wasn’t saved at 10-6.
Joe Philbin received the least patience — fired after four games — by the Dolphins, while Eric Mangini (Browns), Hue Jackson (Browns), Dave McGinnis (Cardinals), Mike Singletary (49ers), Rod Marinelli (Lions), Mike Sherman (Packers), Mike Riley (Chargers) and Pagano all were gone after losing records in the first year of a new partnership. Super Bowl winner Mike McCarthy (Packers) was the most successful in this short-leash group.
The Jets tried twice this decade to stick with the coach and both times — Rex Ryan and Adam Gase — the coach was fired after two seasons. Neither Ryan (12-20) nor Gase (9-23) had anywhere near the gripe as Caldwell, whose back-to-back 9-7 seasons — a scenario the Giants would welcome with open arms after five straight losing seasons — got him fired so GM Bob Quinn could hire old friend Matt Patricia and kick off a 13-29 era.
“I think without question that had he been left to his own devices, I probably would have been gone the day he came in,” Caldwell later said.
Jay Gruden (Washington) survived a GM change — he was closely tied to team president Bruce Allen — but his six-year tenure produced only one playoff berth.
X factor
Who is the new GM? Because a promoted internal candidate like Kevin Abrams — a 20-year member of the Giants front office who has built a strong relationship with Judge — is more likely to show patience with an inherited coach than an outsider, the data shows.
Jim Haslett (Saints), Mike Munchak (Titans), Jack Del Rio (Jaguars) and Dick Jauron (Bills) all benefited in terms of time from an in-house change more than their records suggest was warranted.
Dan Reeves (Falcons), Bill O’Brien (Texans) and Jon Gruden (Buccaneers) won power struggles within the organization and either served as de facto GM or hired a friend. The former scenario won’t happen with the Giants’ structure, but it is a possibility that Judge could have a strong say in choosing his boss, which would provide a longer runway.
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