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The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Cleveland Cavaliers meet Monday in a matchup between two young teams looking to make a playoff push. However, you could argue that the Cavaliers are trending downward recently. Despite having one of the best defenses in the league, they rank 18th in Offensive Rating over the past two weeks, scoring just 111.5 points per 100 possessions.
Outside of Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, their offense struggles to score efficiently, ranking 21st in half-court points per possession and in the bottom of the league in shooting percentage from every area of the floor except the paint. That’s an area the Timberwolves defend well, allowing opposing teams to shoot 64.3 percent — 11th in the NBA. While the Cavaliers spent much of the season being undervalued, the betting market has caught up to them. Considering their offensive inconsistencies, it’s no surprise they are 0-4 against the spread in their past four games.
Minnesota is coming off a 133-102 blowout loss to the 76ers on Friday, one night after their thrilling 119-114 win over the Grizzlies. Aside from dealing with the newly formed combination of Joel Embiid and James Harden, they were in a bad spot against a well-rested 76ers team and should bounce back after two days of rest.
Oddsmakers have installed the Timberwolves as -1.5 point road favorites, but I believe this number is short based on the Cavaliers’ recent play offensively. My model makes Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves three-point favorites, so I’ll back them to get the win and cover tonight up to that number.
The play: T’Wolves -1.5
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