Vegas’s treatment of Wild vs Golden Knights is all wrong

With the Minnesota Wild and West Division chief Vegas Golden Knights separating with only four points, the bookies can expect a playoff atmosphere when the teams meet at North Star State on Monday and Wednesday. On the surface, these are two of the league’s hottest teams. The Golden Knights have gone 9–1 in their final 10 while the Wild have set an 8–2 record. Therefore, many betters will see this matchup as a pick ’em or a game where the road team should be a small favorite. However, it is imperative that speculators dig deeper because results-based analysis often misses the mark.

Since the beginning of April, the Golden Knights have been playing teams in an impressive manner. According to Evolution Hockey, the team has managed to achieve a regional lead by attempting 67 shots in the competition, allowing just 55. Meanwhile, Wilde’s win is not supported by strong underlying numbers. Unlike the Golden Knights, the Wild have not been outshot more often, especially even at strengths where they are only able to make 45 percent of their attempts on average. The Wild have beaten their opponents only six times in their last 15 matches and have only 49 percent of their expected goals.

Of course, the bookies should also keep the season series in mind. This back-to-back set would make the final two meetings between the teams. The Wild have won four out of six straight against the Golden Knights, including the two most recent games a month ago. In fact, the Wilds are the only team in the division that does not have a winning record against the Golden Knights, but the games are close to both teams’ scores and level of competition. Given that the Golden Knights have been a lot more effective than the Wild during this stretch of games lately, it is now time to buy less on a matchup that we can see very well in the playoffs.

The opening of Over-121 at DraftKings means that the Golden Knights will win the game by about 55 percent. The last time the two teams met in Vegas, the home team had a price tag of -160 or 61.5 percent. This is an adjustment of about 7 percent, which is too much for a simple site change. If the game happened a month ago, Odds would make a bit more sense. The NHL is a league of highs and lows and to place value bets in hockey markets, many bookies often feel they are trying to catch a falling knife.

However, in reality, the goal is to capture falling prices. To the untrained eye, both of these teams are firing on all cylinders, given their recent record, but fast hockey betters can tell the difference between a legitimate contender in the Vegas Golden Knights and a wild team that does not have the same level of superstar Is genius. By my estimation, the Golden Knights should carry a price tag of -145 as they will win the game with an average of 59 percent of the time, and I would adjust my stake to as comfortable as -140. Gush. At-121, bettors are getting a deal.

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