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If the Islanders had checked their chances of making the playoffs when they woke up Friday morning, they almost certainly would have seen a figure of one percent.
Three publicly available models — FiveThirtyEight, MoneyPuck and The Athletic — were in agreement on that, as the 25-24-8 Islanders sat 19 points back of the Capitals in the race for the second wild-card spot, with four games in hand.
So, you’re saying there’s a chance?
The way the Islanders have played lately, taking points in five straight games while winning four of those, just maybe.
“We’ve been working to get to this point all year,” Anders Lee said following the 2-1 win Thursday over the Rangers. “The way things have gone, the ups and downs, the inability to get things going, it was something we’ve been going for all year. And now, we’re getting there.”
Indeed, the Islanders of late are playing like the Islanders of last year. They have four lines rolling, are grinding teams down, avoiding errors and playing strong in goal.
These Islanders, even if the playoffs are a long shot, are not a team anyone will want to see on their schedule for the next six weeks. The question is: Where were they for the season’s first five months?
With the trade deadline on Monday, the Islanders’ recent play might have Lou Lamoriello wondering whether it’s worth selling off players such as Semyon Varlamov, who can reliably back up Ilya Sorokin, or Cal Clutterbuck, who put in a massive shift playing keep-away at six-on-five late in the third period on Thursday.
“That’s how you win,” Islanders coach Barry Trotz said of Clutterbuck’s shift, the third time he repeated the phrase in less than a minute. “That’s how you learn to win.”
Are the Islanders sure that’s who they want to get rid of?
At the right price, yes, of course, it’s worth selling off a 34-year-old impending unrestricted free agent with the team clinging to slim playoff hopes. But if the Islanders end up holding onto Clutterbuck, remember why.
A chance?
It’s miniscule and it would take the Capitals or some other team losing a lot of games while the Islanders play like this for the rest of the season. Even all that might not be enough. There have been too many moments, too many games, in which the Islanders have left points on the table for them to be particularly deserving of such a run.
But it’s hard to deny how well they’re playing now.
“We just got to keep going at it,” Lee said. “Keep building, stick together and roll. And that’s what we’re doing now.
“Regardless of how you view everything before it, it’s a product of all that work we put in trying to get our team to where we are.”
After scoring a power-play goal Thursday, Lee has nine goals in his last six games. After netting the game-winner late in the third period, Kyle Palmieri has 10 goals in the last 31 days. After spending much of the year struggling to center Lee and Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal seems to have found a line that works, with Zach Parise and Oliver Wahlstrom.
They are driving the bus the way Lamoriello and Trotz envisioned when they doubled down on the core last summer. The Islanders finally are getting the results management envisioned then, too.
“All four lines are contributing and we get goaltending, we have a chance almost every night,” Trotz said, before amending that. “Chance to win every night.”
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