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In Super Bowl history, the point spread has been, on average, just under a touchdown (6.7 points per game).
The most common closing number in Super Bowl history is 3, with 10 different Super Bowls closing with a spread of exactly a field goal. In total, almost half of all Super Bowls, or 28 of 55 (50.9 percent), had a closing spread of six points or less.
Here’s how Super Bowl lines have broken down:
1-point spread (twice); 1.5 points (three times); 2 points (once); 2.5 points (once); 3 points (10 times); 3.5 points (twice); 4 points (twice); 4.5 points (five times); 6 points (twice); 6.5 points (six times); 7 points (five times); 7.5 points (once); 9.5 points (once); 10 points (once); 10.5 points (twice); 11.5 points (once); 12 points (twice); 12.5 points (once); 13.5 points (twice); 14 points (three times); 18 points (twice).
In the 28 Super Bowls that featured a short point spread (six points or less), the line has never actually come into play at the end of the game.
Let me explain …
In those games, 14 underdogs won outright and 14 favorites won and covered the spread.
So not once has the underdog covered the spread but lost the game.
The lowest point spread for a favorite that won the Super Bowl straight-up but failed to cover the spread was 6.5 points in Super Bowl X and Super Bowl XLIII. In both of those games, the favorite won the game by 4 points, but failed to cover the 6.5-point spread.
In Super Bowl history, only six games have seen the straight-up winner not cover the spread and it hasn’t happened since Super Bowl XLIII between the Steelers and Cardinals in 2009. Just in the past six seasons, three underdogs have won outright — the Broncos (+4.5), Eagles (+4.5) and Buccaneers (+3).
This has been a theme this year in the NFL playoffs, as well:
— Six favorites have won and covered.
— Five underdogs have won outright.
— One underdog has covered and lost (49ers vs. Rams).
In 55 playoff games with spreads under a touchdown over the last 10 years, only eight favorites have won but failed to cover the spread.
Here’s what this means for Super Bowl LVI between the Bengals and Rams: If you like the Bengals and think history will repeat itself, take Cincinnati on the moneyline. And if you like Los Angeles? Laying the points isn’t the worst thing in the world.
For what it’s worth, this trend has also applied in college football, where bowl underdogs usually either win outright, or lose and don’t cover the spread. Since 2005, bowl game underdogs between 3.5-7 points are 89-134 straight-up but have won a $100 bettor $3,490 in those games.
And since the BCS national title game was created in 1998, just three of 24 championships have seen the underdog lose but still cover.
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