If, at this time last year, you picked the Braves to win the World Series, then the overall genius of Ronald Acuña Jr., the production of Marcel Ozuna and a comeback from an Achilles tear by Mike Soroka were almost certainly at the center of the forecast.
In the real world, Acuña tore up his knee and didn’t play after July 10. Ozuna was performing poorly after re-signing as a free agent, fractured two fingers on his left hand then was arrested on charges of assault and battery on his wife, and was subsequently placed on administrative leave via MLB’s domestic abuse protocols. Soroka re-tore his Achilles and never pitched in 2021.
Acuña, Ozuna and Soroka did not play in the postseason. But the relatively small in-season trade additions of Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler proved massive — as did the lefty relief triumvirate of Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter and Will Smith. In other words, what proved invaluable to Atlanta’s first title since 1995 was unpredictable at the time everyone made predictions. Even if you picked the Braves to win it all, you didn’t have the right reasons.
This is why I don’t particularly like to make predictions. Even if you had three months of information last year, your NL MVP would have been Acuña and your NL Cy Young would have been Jacob deGrom. Neither played in the second half.
But annually, this paper asks me to make predictions — so I do. I figured I would use this space, therefore, to perhaps explain a few thoughts on what I did, but also — I hope — offer some insights on the season ahead:
AL MVP: Luis Robert, White Sox, CF
Besides Robert, I seriously considered the Twins’ Byron Buxton and the Rays’ Wander Franco. Because of injury, or in Franco’s case not being summoned until the third week in June, none of the trio played more than 70 games in 2021.
Yet, each reached at least 3.5 wins above replacement. In the wild card era (since 1995), only one other player had that combination: the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts in 2020, when the season was just 60 games because of COVID-19.
Look, this could have been a chalk call with, say, a healthy rebound from Mike Trout, or Trout’s Angels teammate Shohei Ohtani being so two-way great again that he repeats as the MVP winner, or Aaron Judge, or someone from the Rangers’ new double-play combo of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien — I really think Seager is ready to assemble a healthy brilliant season.
But Robert, Buxton, and Franco are five-tool skill set players and I wanted to go off the beaten path a bit.
AL Rookie of the Year: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals, 3B
He was one of three consensus top-five prospects who made rosters to open the season, along with Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez and Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson. If not for spring injuries, Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman and Tigers center fielder Riley Greene also might have made their teams. They should both be up soon enough.
And what do Robert, Buxton, Franco, Witt, Rodriguez, Torkelson, Rutschman and Greene all have in common? They are all American League players — young talented ones at that.
And there is this: Of the 10 biggest free-agent signings by dollars, three players changed leagues — all switching from the NL to the AL: Seager, Javier Baez and Trevor Story.
The NL has plenty of talent. But the AL’s is deeper. Remember how many years we were awaiting the greatest free-agent shortstop class ever? Baez, Seager, Semien, Story and Carlos Correa all ended up in the AL, making the position so deep in the league that Semien stayed at second base and Story switched there.
NL MVP: Francisco Lindor, Mets, SS
Not long ago, he was supposed to headline that free-agent class of elite shortstops. But he was traded and subsequently signed a 10-year extension with the Mets. He is in the NL, and I just think he is poised, in Year 2 in New York, to settle down and show his full array of skill and energy.
The field is a little more open for someone such as Lindor, because Acuña (knee) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (wrist) are not healthy or playing to begin the season. The signing of Freddie Freeman by the Dodgers gives them three legit MVP contenders, including Betts and Trea Turner, so that potentially could split lots of votes for candidates on the expected best team in the league.
Conversely, how much will it hurt Juan Soto that the Nationals will not be very good? Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell offer some protection, but not enough that Soto might not challenge to reach 200 walks. Why would anyone pitch to him unless there were no alternative?
NL Rookie of the Year: Seiyu Suzuki, Cubs, OF
This is another place of disparity between NL and AL. There is no one coming from the minors immediately who projects to be a strong as Witt, Rodriguez and Torkelson. Fireballer Hunter Greene is in the Reds’ rotation to begin the year, but without an elite positional prospect coming from the minors, in particular, the Japanese import Suzuki has a clearer path to this award.
AL Cy Young: Jose Berrios, Blue Jays, SP
So much (rightfully) has been made of the Blue Jays’ fierce lineup, but the club has done a tremendous job creating a strong rotation over the past few years. Berrios was acquired in a trade, Kevin Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun-jin Ryu came via free agency, and Alek Manoah was the 11th-overall pick in 2019. And that does not even count trading for, then signing to a reasonable one-year contract, Robbie Ray, who rewarded that deal with an AL Cy Young last year.
Ray parlayed that into a $115 million package from the Mariners. Toronto also lost Semien in free agency to Texas after he was third for AL MVP. But Toronto signed Gausman to replace Ray and traded for Matt Chapman to compensate for the loss of Semien. But if you like the Blue Jays this year, part of that is the expectation of a full season from George Springer (limited to 78 games last year due to multiple injuries) and Berrios, who joined Toronto at the trade deadline.
I always worry about a breakthrough team when it has so much noise around it the following season — it is harder to win when expected than as an upstart. Still, I picked Toronto to win the competitive AL East. One reason is belief Berrios is ready to be an ace. He is the right age (28 in May). He has comfort with a seven-year, $131 million extension. And down the stretch, as the Blue Jays were trying to get into the playoffs last year, Berrios in his final seven starts had a 2.93 ERA and a .587 OPS against. But let’s just say, after his 2022 opener — one out, four runs, a 108.00 ERA — he has a lot of work to do to validate my faith.
NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler, Dodgers, SP
The other two I seriously pondered were the Braves’ Max Fried and the Giants’ Logan Webb. Buehler was fourth last year. In a 2022 season — off a shortened spring — teams are going to be challenged to find innings from their staffs. A rotation horse is going to be as valuable as ever.
I just think Buehler is the best bet in the sport to make 30-plus starts with dominance.