The BMW Championship provided an exciting playoff for the second year in a row last weekend when Patrick Cantlay outdueled Bryson DeChambeau in a six-hole playoff to win the event at 25/1 and give this column a 1-2 finish in the event.
Both players shot 27-under but reached the playoff in different ways.
While DeChambeau doubled nearly the entire field for SG: Off-The-Tee, Patrick Cantlay was Patrick Cantmiss as he gained +14.577 strokes putting, which is a ShotLink record dating back to the data’s creation in 2005. Cantlay, the season’s only three-time event winner, now enters the Tour Championship at 10-under (more on the staggered scoring system below) and comes to Atlanta as the favorite to win the FedEx Cup.
The 2020-21 PGA Tour season culminates this weekend when the FedEx Cup will be awarded including $15 million to the victor. 30 players qualified for the season-ending event, which means all players will be entered into all next season’s majors. Due to the scoring system, only a few players can realistically win the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup.
Most books are only offering the market with the starting handicap scoring, but some shops will also be offering a low 72-hole scoring market as well. Last year provided a perfect example of the two unique markets. Dustin Johnson entered last year’s Tour Championship at 10-under and shot 11-under over 72 holes for a total score of 21-under-par and won the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup. However, Xander Schauffele shot 15-under and was the winner in the low 72-hole market.
With only 30 players in the Tour Championship, there is no 36-hole cut. The FedEx Cup winner receives $15 million out of the $60 million bonus money pool plus a five-year PGA Tour exemption. Although the staggered scoring mentioned above will determine the FedEx Cup winner, the scores (actual under par score) without the seeding adjustment will determine the OWGR points allocation.
Here are our picks for this week’s Tour Championship:
Jon Rahm: 7/2 (To win Tour Championship)
Rahm starts the Tour Championship four strokes back of FedEx Cup points leader Cantlay.
With finishes of T-3 and T-9 in the two playoff events, his game has rounded back into form quickly after another bout with COVID-19.
Rory McIlroy: 11/1 (72-hole market)
McIlroy looks to be turning the corner with a fourth-place finish last week in Baltimore. Rory is also a two-time winner here at East Lake.
Scottie Scheffler: 25/1 (72-hole market)
Scheffler was fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach last week at the BMW Championship, and he was also second here to Schauffele last year. This is also Scheffler’s last chance to impress Ryder Cup captain Steve Stricker to be one of the six captains’ picks.
Sergio Garcia: 40/1 (72-hole market)
It should be no surprise that Garcia is rallying late to potentially make the European Ryder Cup team. Last week’s T-6 at the BMW was Garcia’s first top 10 since April.
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