Will 2021 be the lucky number 13 in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament?
The track record 13 seeds in the NCAA tournament is not great. The No. 4 seed 111-29 – has a winning percentage of .793 in the first round. A total of six No. 13 seeds have led the Sweet 16 and none have made it to the Elite Eight.
That list includes Valparaiso (1998), Richmond (1998), Oklahoma (1999), Bradley (2006), Ohio (2012) and La Salle (2013). Ohio limited No. 1 North Carolina to a 73–65 overtime thriller in that 2012 run. The Bobcats are back in the tournament this year, and again one of the more intriguing troubles. Are they making the best bets to upset another 4-13?
Sporting News takes a closer look at four matches to find out:
UPS limit by seed
15 vs 2 | 14 vs 3 | 13 vs 4 | 12 vs 5
13 Liberty vs. 4 Oklahoma State
FanDuel Odds: Oklahoma State-9 (O / U 142)
Why this can happen: Liberty averages just 9.7 turnovers per game – and Oklahoma State averages 15.9 turnovers per game. The Flames have a need to play guard alongside Darrius McHay and Chris Parker, and are an experienced team that troubled 5–12 in 2019. Liberty draws a 12-game winning streak in the tournament, and it makes them a dangerous team. Liberty does not have Cade Cunningham. The All-Americans average 20.2 points per game, and the Cowboys’ offense will present a style challenge for the Liberty – especially if the second chance points. If Oklahoma shoots better than 50 percent from the field, the Flames will have trouble keeping in double digits.
13 UNC-Greensboro vs. 4 Florida State
FanDuel Odds: Florida State-11.5 (O / U 145)
Why this can happen: Senior guard Isaiah Miller is a superstar player who can go far. He averaged 27.4 points per game in his last five matches and UNC-Greensboro won eight of his final 10. Florida State lost three of its last five games. The Seminoles have advanced to the end of the second week in their last two tournament appearances, and the matchup between 7-foot centers Balasa Koprivka and Hayden Koval will go a long way in determining the tempo. The Seminoles are eighth in the nation in three-point percentage (39.0), and leading scorer MJ Walker is 44.4 percent behind the arc. He would need an off night to get a chance for UNC-Greensboro.
Brief Picture: DeCourcy (Gonzaga) | Alcoholic (Illinois) | Fagan (Gonzaga)
13 North Texas vs 4 Purdue
FanDuel Odds: Purdue-7.5 (O / U 125)
Why this can happen: The Conf Green caught fire in the Conference-USA tournament, and North Texas has four players who averaged double figures in the regular season. Mean Green has a top-10 scoring defense that has allowed 61.5 points per game. The challenge is for 6-10 forward Zachary Simmons, who will have to be more proactive against the Purdue front line led by forward Treviye Williams, who averages 15.6 points and nine rebounds and 7-4 center Zac Ade. If guard Jaden Ivy stays on, North Texas will be in trouble. Under Matt Painter, the Boilermakers are 9–2 in the first round, and have reached the second weekend in each of their final appearances.
13 Ohio vs 4 Virginia
FanDuel Odds: Virginia – 8 (O / U 132)
Why this can happen: Virginia’s biggest issues are off the court right now after COVID-19 issues forced the Cavaliers to exit the ACC tournament. The Cavaliers still score just 60.5 points per game, and are 12.4 dishonest per game against rival Virginia. They will test Ohio’s patience with that defense and their ability to limit possessions. The Wisconsin natives – the pairing of Sam Hauser of Virginia and Ben Vander Plas of Ohio – come into focus. Vander Plasse will at least face Hauser – one of the ACC’s best players. The challenge is on Ohio’s star guard Jason Preston, who averages 16.6 points, 7.2 assists and 6.8 rebounds. The OAC shot 26 of 58 from 3-point range in the MAC tournament, and will need to continue hot shooting against the 2019 national champions.
Field Construction:
WEST | East | South | MIDWEST
Which 13 seed is best for an upset?
North Texas has the lowest spread of four, but we don’t like their chance against that big Purdue front line.
UNC-Greensboro has the most intriguing scorers in Miller, but Florida State has presented a lot of problems on the offensive end.
Liberty has the best of four teams, and even with the ability to limit possessions it is difficult to pick up flames against Cunningham and is an Oklahoma State offense.
Ohio is the best chance for an upset – and there are 11-13 ATSs this year to cover the spread knowing the Cavaliers – but it’s also a game in which Virginia dominates if the Bobcats have a shooting night in Virginia. Might be possible.
This could be another ominous year for the number 13 as a result.
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