Another college football weekend has come and gone and given us a lot to think about moving forward. My process that includes college football box sore study always uncovers something interesting and actionable for the following week and sometimes even multiple weeks as things become trends. Week 10 was no different in that regard.
Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 28: This loss dropped Mississippi State to 5-4, but it was one that probably never should have gone in the loss column. Mike Leach’s squad is looking for a kicker after Brandon Ruiz missed from 23 and 46 and Nolan McCord missed from 40 with a chance to tie the game.
The Bulldogs left nine points on the field that way and also had an interception inside the Arkansas 40. Mississippi State outgained the Razorbacks 486-393 and threw for 417 yards, but managed only 28 points. The Bulldogs’ only obscene performance was against Alabama. Otherwise, they’ve lost three games by eight combined points.
Recommendation: Play on Mississippi State. The Air Raid attack has really taken hold in Starkville and this is a team that has a decent defense and a good quarterback in Will Rogers at the helm. The remaining schedule features Auburn, Tennessee State and Ole Miss and the Bulldogs are plenty live in those two games against ranked opponents. Leach will probably just go for it more on fourth down and with his offense, which might not be a bad idea.
Cincinnati 28, Tulsa 20: Coach Phillip Montgomery nearly got his signature win at Tulsa. His team outgained No. 6 Cincinnati 457-380. The yards per play were actually 6.55 to 5.44 in favor of the Bearcats, but Tulsa did manage to run a lot more plays, despite being 4 of 14 on third down. The Golden Hurricane had a good bit of early-down success, which is a bad indicator for Cincinnati going forward.
Tulsa turned the ball over on downs three times, including a fourth-and-5 at the 6-yard line with 1:14 left. Cincinnati fumbled one play later, but Tulsa fumbled into the end zone after having three cracks from the 1-yard line to score a touchdown and go for the game-tying two-point conversion.
Recommendation: Play on Tulsa (this week). I like Tulsa against Tulane. The Golden Hurricane are better than their 3-6 record and they need to win out for a bowl. I’d be worried the following week in a big favorite role against Temple and then against SMU in the regular-season finale.
Houston 54, South Florida 42: Sometimes a winning bet is still a bad one. Case in point, I played USF last week. The Bulls covered the +13, but gave up 646 yards to Houston. The Cougars had a 646-399 edge in yards, scored 54 points and failed to cover. USF even had the game’s only two turnovers, plus two more turnovers on downs. So, what the heck happened? USF had two Brian Battie kick return touchdowns in the first half. The Bulls actually led 28-26 going into the intermission as a result of the second one, but that lead didn’t last long. The Cougars had 9.94 yards per play to USF’s 5.47. It might be the luckiest cover I’ve ever had.
Recommendation: Play on Houston. The Cougars are for real. Clayton Tune seems to be the right guy for the offense and the Cougars are actually really strong on special teams themselves. Temple, Memphis and UConn are left on the schedule before what should be an undefeated AAC showdown with Cincinnati. The Cougars are one bad half away from having an unblemished record overall, but they will go 9-0 in AAC play. This team is legit.