The final few weeks of the college football season are loaded with situations that could provide added value for bettors.
Coaches are on the hot seat or already gone. Players are trying to get noticed by scouts and improve their draft stock. There are rivalry games and other factors to consider. Here are some games on Saturday’s slate that are interesting from a situational standpoint.
Texas Tech at Baylor (-14.5, 52)
This game is what I’d call sneakily fascinating. Let’s run through the moving parts. Texas Tech was shut out last week for the first time since 1997, an embarrassing performance for the Red Raiders, and one from which they’d like to bounce back.
New Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire was actually Dave Aranda’s associate head coach and outside linebackers coach at Baylor until he took the Texas Tech job in November. Interim Sonny Cumbie will still lead the Red Raiders through their bowl game, but McGuire is certainly involved.
McGuire is said to be an outstanding recruiter and had a hand in getting a lot of the current Baylor players to the school. He’s also in the process of looking to poach assistants to fill out his coaching staff, so that adds intrigue.
Also on the coaching front, Aranda is a very hot name, possibly to return to LSU, where he was the defensive coordinator and associate head coach from 2016-19. Baylor has to play through that distraction. The Bears also have a shot to get to the Big 12 Championship game. They need a win and an Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State. The Texas Tech-Baylor game is at noon EST and Bedlam is at 7:30 p.m., so the Bears will have a lot to think about as the day goes along.
Oh, and to top it all off, Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon is questionable with a hamstring injury he suffered last week.
I actually like this spot for Texas Tech and think McGuire will end up with a ton of input against a roster he knows inside and out.
Houston (-32.5, 56) at Connecticut
Can anything help UConn at this point? Probably not, but you know Houston is absolutely looking past the Huskies in advance of next week’s huge AAC Championship game against Cincinnati. (And we could argue the Bearcats are doing the same against East Carolina.)
Connecticut seems content to have one win, over Yale. The last three games, against Middle Tennessee, Clemson and Central Florida, resulted in losses by 31, 37 and 32 points. Houston could sleepwalk through this game and probably win by a substantial margin. It still merits a mention, however, because this won’t be the only look-ahead spot of the week. It is just one of the most obvious, especially because this isn’t a rivalry game to stay focused.
Oregon State at Oregon (-7, 61)
Oregon had its College Football Playoff hopes ended by Utah last week. Mario Cristobal’s team will be tasked with attempting to bounce back in what used to be known as the Civil War rivalry game against Oregon State.
This is a revenge spot for the Ducks, who lost to the Beavers in 2020, for just the second time since 2007. We also have some messy tiebreakers here for a spot against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game Dec. 3 in Las Vegas. With a win, Oregon would be in and would be in the ultimate revenge spot against the Utes. An Oregon State win would mean Washington State would go if the Cougars beat Washington in the Apple Cup. Oregon State needs a win and a Washington State loss to go to Sin City.
The Beavers have some strange losses this season but have played extremely well the past two weeks. You would think the spot favors them, but Oregon may also circle the wagons and let out some frustration given last week’s loss and last year’s defeat at the hands of Oregon State. The bubble-burst theory may not be as effective in rivalry games.
Clemson (-11.5, 43) at South Carolina
Clemson has won six Palmetto Bowls in a row, and five have not been close. The teams did not play last season, for the first time since 1908. The reinvigorated South Carolina program still lacks the talent of Clemson’s well-established juggernaut, but the Gamecocks play extremely hard for Shane Beamer, who has had a very successful first season.
Last week, South Carolina, which was 2-8 in 2020, achieved bowl eligibility for the first time in three seasons. Beamer and the players were very emotional after the game. Usually I’d be very concerned about a spot like that, but the program seems much different under Beamer.
A Clemson victory would tie for the longest winning streak in the series, which belonged to the Tigers from 1934-40, a mark they undoubtedly would have tied last season had the game been played. It hasn’t been a great season for Clemson, but a statement win would ease the blow.
I expect a whale of an effort from both teams, and sometimes having both teams on equal footing is a situational spot in and of itself.