Home team in Caps:
TITANS (-3.5) over Bengals
Many veteran NFL fans rave about the level of competition and the sheer quantity of gridiron talent on display in this, the divisional round — though the annual surprise factor tends to be considerable, given that the week off granted to those enjoying the top seeds is a mixed blessing. The return of top-drawer running back Derrick Henry lends a further marked talent advantage to the homestanding Titans, and there’s scant debate about the identity of the most likely winner.
The marketplace, however, confirms that this matchup may not necessarily generate the cut-and-dried result anticipated by some. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, the former LSU signal-caller, has matched all reasonable expectations developing before the eyes of even the most hypercritical members of the NFL’s sophisticated witnesses. Now, with essentially the bulk of two full seasons of development in his muscles and memory bank, Burrow has already given every reasonable expectation that he has further significant upside to be explored.
The pressure applied to this situation now rests squarely on the shoulders of Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. We’ve long been fans of Tannehill’s broad abilities, going back to his collegiate days — but we’ve typically seen Tannehill deliver more satisfying performances when he has been cast in the underdog role. Sooooo … this figures to be close.
Titans, 33-28.
PACKERS (-5.5) over 49ers
Here’s a competitive situation which likely needs to be handled differently than the Titans-Bengals example. 49ers field leader Jimmy Garoppolo has beaten Aaron Rodgers in two of their three meetings — but under the likely circumstances Saturday, am compelled to give a significant nod to the franchise based in Wisconsin.
In a clear-cut reach for the Saturday-night NFL postseason audience, the league went all-out for the spectacle of playoff action contested in extreme, testing conditions, with kickoff temps in the teens, then trending lower as the game develops. Especially blessed with what has long been a superior supporting cast, Rodgers and friends have proven their quality and worth, frequently reaching deep into the postseason structure. Rodgers has managed to capture but a single Super Bowl, but his frequent forays into late January have been indisputable.
The physical facts cannot be construed as anything resembling an advantage for Garoppolo, who continues to accumulate nagging injuries which make for accumulating levels of vulnerability for the visiting side. That does not necessarily make victory for the visiting side impossible to attain, but the divisional round has never been designed to make things easier for those teams not sleeping in their own beds, and this looms no different. It’s tough to fight the elements and win, and we won’t stick our necks out, here.
Packers, 27-14.