Home team in Caps:
Talk about trying to square the circle! This looms as one brain-busting handicap. It’s impossible to deliver a clear-cut argument, one way or another, at the prevailing price. You want us to go hard against the Rams’ all-star contingent … or blithely buck Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Bruce Arians, and South Florida’s cast of thousands? As noted … not easy!
It’s not as if the Rams’ case isn’t more than a little imposing. They won 13 regular-season games in what can reasonably be argued is the most challenging division in the league — with six games a season against the 49ers, Cardinals, and Seahawks. They swapped with the Lions to acquire highly regarded QB Matthew Stafford, who was broadly frustrated in his attempts to crack the postseason with the Lions, but promptly managed to lead the Rams to a seat in the postseason Rozelle tourney in his first try.
Adding further spice to the stew, you can readily argue that the Rams have even broadly nullified the frequent difficulties of NFL scheduling, when you’re one of the better teams in the league. But the Rams have triumphed against TB12 in the regular season twice in the past two seasons.
Alas, even with all that said, we’re going to go with Tampa Bay here, even with a considerable helping of misgivings. As difficult to fault as each of these sides is, this looms as a game in which it is more than a little conceivable that the field-goal handicap could come into play … and in a game that figures to be close, hooking up Brady against Stafford … give me Brady.
Buccaneers, 24-17.
Sometimes, you just have to reflect on which bullish story regarding which top-rung AFC squad you find more convincing. In this year’s Exhibit A, we’re going to go with the Bills, QB Josh Allen, with a defense that’s good enough to keep Buffalo in games until it’s time to deliver the knockout blow of the week in question.
One of the many charms of this matchup is that the Chiefs’ defense is appreciably worse than that fielded by the Bills, and it’s not really a close call. Yes, it’s easy for Kansas City to yield to the temptation of simply looking to outscore opposing sides — especially when you consider how frequently that plan has worked.
In the earlier meeting between these two this season, Pat Mahomes tossed a pair of TD passes — but he also was picked off twice, which yielding a result considerably less than satisfying to the Chiefs faithful.
In a current snapshot, which shows even better teams placing a lesser emphasis on raw rushing yardage, the extent to which the Bills continue to place added emphasis on positive ground yardage is a significant pledge of allegiance to the ground game. The Bills are running up better than 127 yards per game on average. That’s impressive, especially when the Chiefs average 113 yards per game, and the Rams and Bucs average barely 100 yards on the ground in a representative afternoon.
The Bills continue to reach for higher ground, as Allen continues to exceed expectations, while the defense soldiers on, providing meaningful field position for the Buffalo ball-toters.
Do you suspect the Kansas City offense may have seen its peak? Do you think Buffalo’s seems to have further to advance? We do, too. Don’t be surprised.
Buffalo, 34-27.
Last week: 2-4
2021 season: 128-122-2