VSiN’s NFL expert offers recommendations on the totals for Saturday’s Week 18 matchups
Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 45) at Denver Broncos
Vic Fangio’s days as a head coach may be numbered, but nobody can deny his defensive genius. Fangio’s Broncos will finish out a disappointing losing season on Saturday afternoon against the Chiefs, but Denver’s defense is not the reason why.
The Broncos are third in scoring defense heading into this week. Along the way, they held Kansas City to just 22 points, and one of those touchdowns was a pick-six. Only the Patriots, Bills and Cowboys have a betting scoring percentage against on opponents’ drives, and those teams have 30, 30 and 33 turnovers, respectively; Denver has forced just 19.
The Broncos’ defense is legit, but their offense is also legitimately bad, especially with Drew Lock at quarterback. Lock has two touchdown passes against two picks and has been sacked on 8.4 percent of his pass attempts. The Chiefs’ defense has its flaws, but has gotten better as the season has progressed. Kansas City held Denver to just nine points in the first game, and that was with Teddy Bridgewater and an offense that managed 404 yards, but had three turnovers (and three turnovers on downs).
The game total is 45 here, which implies Kansas City will score about 27 points. That has only happened four times in 16 games against Denver this season, and the Broncos were -4 in turnover margin in one of those games. This total just seems a few points too high.
Pick: Under 45.
Dallas Cowboys (-4, 43.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Football fans likely will be treated to Cooper Rush versus Gardner Minshew in prime time on Saturday as the Cowboys and Eagles finish out the regular season trying not to get anybody hurt.
Dallas rookie linebacker Micah Parsons hit the COVID list on Wednesday and it seems as if he won’t clear in time to participate. But, he won’t be the only big name out of action on either side.
Rush threw for 325 yards when pressed into starting duty earlier this season for then-injured Dak Prescott. He has a good grasp on this Kellen Moore offense and should be given ample opportunity to throw the ball around.
Minshew is likely to throw more often, and likely more efficiently, than Jalen Hurts has this season. Minshew was 20-for-25 in a win over the Jets and gave the Eagles a real lift while Hurts rested an injury. Backup quarterbacks have a lot of incentive to play well in games like this when given the opportunity, as they’d love to find a starting job elsewhere the following season. Minshew is a veteran with 21 starts to his name and some strong numbers with a 39-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s far from Sean Mannion.
My guess is both coordinators will throw a bone to the backups and Rush and Minshew will be given the chance to put up some numbers. Key defensive players are likely to be missing from both sides, which evens the playing field if top starters sit out as well. This just feels like a game that could have some offensive pizzazz to it with a couple of solid backup quarterbacks and skeleton defenses.
Pick: Over 43.5.