Three years ago, Corey Conners scored golf’s ultimate golden ticket to the Chocolate Factory.
The story is already the stuff of golf lore. Conners played in the Monday qualifier for the Valero Texas Open, clinched one of the last spots in the tournament field, then won it all six days later to secure the final Masters invitation for the very next week.
With the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau in the field, this week’s Augusta precursor shouldn’t be devoid of entertainment value, though the real drama will come Sunday afternoon if a handful of contenders are seeking that final golden ticket.
It remains one of the greatest underlying subplots at any event on the schedule. If we’re searching for narratives, we can look at motivation just as optimistically as we can view nerves pessimistically. That’s what happens when a win comes with not just the usual spoils of a two-year exemption and a seven-figure paycheck, but also a Sunday night trip to Augusta.
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Maybe it’s more of a romantic than realistic notion, but I’m mostly — mostly — looking beyond those already qualified for the Masters who might be looking beyond this tourney, and instead focusing on those who need this one a little more.
Let’s get right to the picks, starting with an outright who’s certainly been trending in the right direction.
Outright winner
Chris Kirk (30/1): I’d expect this to be a popular outright play this week.
Kirk owns the type of form/history intersection we so often seek, with tChree finishes of 14th or better in his last four starts and four finishes of 13th or better in his last six Texas Open starts.
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And hey, if we’re going after a story, let’s really go after one. Not only would Kirk clinch a return trip to Augusta for the first time since 2016 — he’s not currently in next week’s Masters field, so he’s among those who needs a win to get in — he’s nearly three full years from taking a self-imposed leave of absence from the PGA Tour due to alcohol abuse and depression.
Ever since last year’s feel-good story at the Sony Open, when he finished runner-up and retained full playing privileges, I’ve believed Kirk would get back to the winner’s circle for a fifth time and he’s been knocking on that door lately. With strokes gained ranks of 33rd off the tee, 43rd on approach shots and 17th around the greens, plus a positive putting number, Kirk is clearly doing everything at a high level right now.
Top-Five finish
Branden Grace (22/1): For me, Grace epitomizes the rationale behind sticking with a player until he pays off. There have been slight signals that the man once ranked as high as 10th in the world is ready to return to something close to that prominence.
This feels like the right spot for him to take that next step, as he’s finished 23rd-10th-9th-30th in his last four starts at this one. I’ll sprinkle some on him outright, but top-five/10 props feel like nice hedges.
Top-10 finish
Taylor Moore (10/1): A native of nearby Oklahoma, Moore played his college golf at Arkansas, all of which suggests he’s played a few windy rounds in his day.
In his initial PGA Tour season, Moore has shown that when he’s striking it well, he can post some solid results. While his 13 starts include just a single top 10, this is a place where I’ve had him targeted for a while, as it should suit his style.