Three VSiN football analysts offer up their betting suggestions for the “Monday Night Football” game in Tampa between the Giants and Buccaneers.
Youmans: It has been nearly a month since the Buccaneers won a game — 38-3 over the Bears on Oct. 24 before a loss at New Orleans, a bye and a loss at Washington — so Tom Brady is likely to bounce back and find the win column. I’m not calling for the upset. I will call for the underdog to cover. The Giants are most dangerous as road ’dogs, going 23-7 ATS in their past 30 in the role, including 19-4 since 2018.
Their defense has displayed recent improvement, allowing a total of 39 points in the past three games. There are reasons to be optimistic on the other side of the ball, too, despite the offense ranking 24th in scoring at 19.9 points per game. Running back Saquon Barkley is expected to return from injury along with left tackle Andrew Thomas. In the middle of last season, the Giants were 13-point home ’dogs in a 25-23 loss to Tampa Bay, and this could be a similar outcome.
Youmans’ pick: Giants +10.5.
Tuley: The advance line was actually Buccaneers -12.5 last week before they were upset 29-19 by Washington. Despite the downward adjustment, I’m still on the Giants as I have this line as closer to a touchdown. The Bucs (6-3 and just one game ahead of the Saints in the NFC South) aren’t as dominant as everyone expected them to be in defense of their title and they’re actually a woeful 3-6 ATS as they failed to cover in wins over the Cowboys, Patriots and Eagles in addition to their upset losses to the Rams, Saints and Washington.
The Giants, while only 3-6, have been competitive in most games, including losing just 30-29 to that same Football Team and covering in losses to the Saints and Chiefs. The Giants are also hoping to get Barkley back, which should provide a spark against a Tampa defense that is suddenly looking vulnerable after allowing 36 to the Saints and 29 to Washington. Gimme the points!
Tuley’s pick: Giants +10.5.
Brown: Leonard Fournette’s eight catches in Week 10 was the highest reception number he has cleared in his two seasons with the Buccaneers. Oddsmakers have immediately responded, adding a full reception to his prop number and shifting the juice heavily toward the Under. This looks like an overreaction since Fournette has cleared his reception total in five of nine games this season. He is barely above break-even if you bet his over reception prop number blindly.
It’s easy to see that the performance in Washington is more of an outlier than an established trend going forward. For one, the game script on Monday night won’t be conducive to high-target volume for Fournette. He has seen 40 percent of his targets when the Buccaneers have been trailing, but only 36 percent of their offensive snaps have been while playing from behind. Monday night is setting up as a get right spot for the Buccaneers offense as -10.5 point favorites against the spread. If this expectation holds, then Fournette will be relatively quiet through the air in Week 11.
Brown’s prop pick: Fournette Under 4.5 receptions (-165 at BetMGM).