LAS VEGAS – It wouldn’t be a big surprise if freshman phenom Cade Cunningham leads Oklahoma State in the Final Four. It is also possible that the Cowboys lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament this week.
When filling out the brackets for the office pool, most people prefer to select favorites to advance. It is easy and safe for clear forecasts. The No. 1 seeds Gonzaga, Baylor and Illinois appear to be particularly strong.
But when bets are placed on tournament play, beware of big underdogs, especially in the early stages. Anarchy awaits around the corner and upsets always occur.
“For the ‘I’m Lean’ Dogs, I bow down to take points, and that’s how I play the tournament,” said Richie Basellieri, a professional bookie and veteran Oddsmacher.
The point is the spread equalizer and now more than ever, the line is blurred between power-conference favorites and short-conference.
“Dogs are a lot more capable now because of the balance in basketball college,” said VSNN spokesman Winnie Magliulo. “There’s more equality, so there’s value with ‘dogs.”
As recently as a week ago, some sportsbooks held Oklahoma State as high as 75/1 to win the NCAA Championship. No longer considered long shots, the Cowboys are currently receiving 16/1 odds at BetzMM.
Cunningham, the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, and the Cowboys look like the Carmelo Anthony-led Syracuse team that won a title in 2003.
Oklahoma State, the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region, opened in Friday’s first round as a 9.5-point favorite over 13th-seeded Liberty. That number has been reduced to 7.5. 23-5 and winner of the Atlantic Sun Conference tournament, with the ability to warm up from 3-point range and intimidate the Cowboys.
Check out Liberty and the seven other hot ‘dogs to watch in the first round:
No. 12 Winthrop (+6.5) vs. No. 4 Villanova
It is no secret that the 12th seeded teams reach number 5. The line went down to -7.5 shortly after the Wildcats opened. Villanova is insecure without injured senior guard Coleen Gillespie. The Eagles, 23-1 and champions of the Big South, are full of offensive firepower.
“Winthrop can be a ‘dog that gets a lot of play,” said Chris Andrews, director of the South Point Sportsbook. “Some of the power conference teams are not better according to their reputation, and that’s why we look at 5-12 upsets.”
The tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, with 12-seeds winning 50 of 140 matches against 5-seeds. Since 2000, the 12-seed are 45–34–1 against the spread in this round. In 2019, three of the four 12 seeds advanced to the next round.
No. 14 Colgate (+9.5) vs. No. 3 Arkansas
The 14th seeded Raiders of the Patriot League played only 15 games and won 14 times. It is led by Hot ‘Dog senior guard Jordan Burns, scoring 17 PPG and shooting 41.5 percent on 3-pointers. Six of the team’s top eight scorers shoot better than 36 percent out of 3.
No. 15 Oral Roberts (+17.5) vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Sophomore guard Max Abamus is the nation’s leading scorer (24.2 ppg), and junior forward Kevin Obnor is another lethal scorer (18.2 ppg) for the 15th-seeded Golden Eagles. Abamus scored 33 points in an 83–78 loss to Oklahoma State in December. The Buckeyes have defensive weaknesses and protect against problems. Oral Roberts takes 38.8 percentage points from the 3-point line and scores 41 percent from 3 on it.
Andrews made this line Ohio State-22. Baselary, who lined up 14.5, said, “Oral Roberts is a very good summit league team.”
No. 14 US Santa Barbara (+6.5) vs. No. 5 Creighton
The Bluejays, flown by Georgetown in the Big East tournament title game, opened as an 8-point favorite at UCSB. The Gauchos, another dangerous 12-seed, are led by point guard JaQuori McLaughlin and 6-foot-9 forward Amadou Sow.
No. 13 Ohio (+7.5) vs. No. 4 Virginia
Bobcats guard Jason Preston is an NBA prospect, scoring 31 points in a 77–75 loss to Illinois at the end of November. The Cavaliers, who dropped out of the ACC tournament due to COVID-19 issues, are not expected to travel to Indianapolis until Thursday or Friday and will have limited practice time this week. Smell upset?
No. 15 Grand Canyon (+15) vs. No. 2 Iowa
Bryce Drew is an NCAA tournament legend since his days as a shooting star for Valparacio. He coached the 15th-seeded Antelope to the Western Athletic Conference Championships with the help of a 7-foot Asbjergne midguard who can defend the rim against Hawkies star Luca Garza.
No. 15 Iona (+16.5) vs. No. 2 Alabama
Why no bet on Rick Pitino? Gayle may not win, but coaches who know all about the magic of March are getting a lot of points. Senior defender Isaiah Ross (18.4 ppg) leads an experienced Iona team. The Crimson Tide expended too much energy to win the SEC tournament. Crazier things have happened in the first round.
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