Joe Burrow looked like the real deal in his playoff debut. In a 26-19 victory over the Raiders, he threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers, skillfully directing the Bengals past a wily, veteran opponent.
Burrow was fortunate to have played that game at home in front of friendly fans and in familiar conditions. Other young quarterbacks didn’t have quite the same experience. Rookie Mac Jones suffered through a nightmare in Orchard Park as the Patriots were trounced by the Bills, 47-17. Jalen Hurts of the Eagles was down 31-0 before Philadelphia finally scored in the fourth quarter of a 31-15 loss at Tampa Bay. Even Kyler Murray, a former Rookie of the Year and two-time Pro Bowler, was destroyed in his first road postseason game, fueling a 34-11 loss to the Rams with a ridiculous pick six.
In fact, in the wild-card round, home teams went 5-1 both straight up and against the spread. The only road team to have success, the 49ers, have a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who once came up a few yards short of winning a Super Bowl. This isn’t to say that road teams can’t win in the playoffs or that you’d be foolish to pick them. I do support some visitors in this weekend’s divisional round, as you’ll see. But the Bengals aren’t one of those teams, as I believe Burrow will have a rough time in Nashville on Saturday in his first road postseason foray.
The Titans come in as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the only team that earned a coveted bye in the conference. Their regular-season bye came after an unf athomable home loss to Houston and a blowout loss at New England. After that, Tennessee went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS to close out the season.
By going 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home, including back-to-back wins against the Bills and Chiefs, Tennessee was able to reach this lofty perch despite missing Derrick Henry for much of the season. His return allows Ryan Tannehill to crank up the play-action passing game and also gives coach Mike Vrabel a chance to make this a more physical game against a Cincinnati team that’s known more for its finesse and explosiveness.
I also give Vrabel a coaching edge over the Bengals’ Zac Taylor. Vrabel is 2-2 in his playoff coaching career, one of the wins an epic takedown of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in Foxborough. Vrabel also played in 20 postseason games, so this is definitely his time of year.
The picks: Titans -3.5 and Under 47.5.
Titans, 26-20
San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS; Over 46.5
The first two things you look at in this matchup are the 49ers’ injuries and the weather. At midweek it is looking as if DE Nick Bosa (concussion) and LB Fred Warner (leg) will be ready to play for the 49ers after going down in the wild-card victory over the Cowboys. As for the forecast, it’ll be freezing (4 degrees, -1 RealFeel) but dry with light to moderate winds at Lambeau Field on Saturday night. Pros like Garoppolo and particularly Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t be hindered much by these conditions.
Similar to the Titans, the bye is a nice advantage for the Packers, and you certainly have to give them the edge to at least survive and advance. But the near-touchdown point spread makes this a real challenge to predict. The Packers won the regular-season meeting, 30-28, in Santa Clara, Calif., as 3.5-point underdogs in Week 3. That was the start of a four-game skid for the 49ers that nearly doomed their season. But the team in now on an 8-2 roll both SU and ATS.
Kyle Shanahan created a monster with Deebo Samuel operating out of the backfield, and the coach is a master at calling the right play at the right time. There are enough cracks in Green Bay’s defense to allow the 49ers to go score-for-score with Rodgers.
Packers, 28-24
Last week: 4-2 sides, 4-2 Over/Unders
Lock of the week: Bills (Locks 11-7 in 2021)