The third edition of the College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday night, and nothing changed with the top teams. The top seven programs all stayed put, so we don’t really have a lot of drama in terms of a big decision for the CFP committee as of now.
We could, though. There is a realistic possibility that everybody except Georgia ends up with two losses. We’ve never had a two-loss team in the final four, but this could be the year it happens. If Cincinnati were to lose to SMU, East Carolina or Houston, one loss would knock the Bearcats out of the equation, and it should, in theory, weaken Notre Dame’s standing in the eyes of the committee.
Ohio State is a big favorite over Michigan State this week and a short road favorite in Ann Arbor in two weeks. Georgia could lose the SEC Championship Game to Alabama and still get in. If the Buckeyes run the table, giving Michigan and Michigan State a second loss, and Oregon also runs the table, who gets the No. 4 spot if Georgia beats Alabama?
At this point, I’m convinced that a two-loss Alabama gets in, barring a blowout loss to Georgia. Here’s a look at the top eight in the official rankings (title odds from BetMGM).
1. Georgia (-120): We now know that Georgia is a 3-point favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Given that Georgia makes the College Football Playoff with a loss in that game, maybe -120 isn’t a bad bet right now. The Bulldogs are favored by just shy of a touchdown against Ohio State by most projections and probably more than a two touchdown favorite over Oregon.
2. Alabama (7/2): Alabama is still the second favorite on the board, but the path to win the title is a tough one. The Iron Bowl did get less interesting with the injury to Auburn’s Bo Nix.
Alabama still can backdoor into the final four with a loss to Georgia, especially a close one. Mississippi State being the only ranked team with four losses tells me that the committee will try to justify two-loss Alabama over Cincinnati if push comes to shove.
3. Oregon Ducks (20/1): Oregon is the fourth choice at 25/1, but a far cry from Ohio State at 4/1 and the top two teams in the CFP rankings. The Ducks are a ’dog to Utah this week, meaning they’d be roughly a pick ’em in Las Vegas if the two met again on Dec. 3.
As juicy as this price looks given that the Ducks control their own destiny, you would be in better shape with a moneyline rollover that likely pushes up into the 5/1 range by the conference championship game and probably over the 25/1 range with just the first semifinal game, let alone the title game.
4. Ohio State (4/1): The Buckeyes control their own destiny. Win out and they’re likely the No. 3 seed if Alabama beats Georgia and the No. 2 seed if Alabama does not. Despite the head-to-head result with Oregon, the Buckeyes have a chance at two top-10 wins and another top-15 win, assuming Wisconsin represents the West Division.
The 4/1 price isn’t that great. The Buckeyes could very well slip up and they will draw a tough 2-vs.-3 game in the semifinal and then likely Georgia or Alabama in the final, where they’d be an underdog. You’re better off not tying up your money right now. Wait and see what Ohio State’s line is before the Playoff, if the Buckeyes get there.
5. Cincinnati (40/1): Cincinnati isn’t in that bad of a spot right now for getting into the playoff. Oklahoma and Wake Forest are out of the picture. There would be hell to pay in the court of public opinion and with all Group of Five conferences if Notre Dame jumped Cincinnati given the head-to-head win for the Bearcats.
But though Cincinnati could shock one playoff team, it would be a huge ask to shock two. The 40/1 is a fancy number, but not one worth playing.
6. Michigan (30/1): Hopefully you jumped on the Michigan train at 60/1 last week if you were going to be invested in the Wolverines. With Penn State out of the way, it comes down to the game against the Buckeyes. Michigan would also be favored in the Big Ten Championship Game, albeit not by as much as Ohio State.
This is the one team with a really decent chance to upset the CFP picture. The value has been sucked out of the number at this point, though. Hopefully you’re holding that 60/1 ticket.
7. Michigan State Spartans (50/1): It basically comes down to this weekend for Michigan State. A loss against the heavily favored Buckeyes and the dream is dead. Given the big number of 19 and the underlying concerns about the Sparty defense, there is no way I would invest anything in them right now. Like Oregon, a moneyline rollover would be the better play, if anything.
8. Notre Dame (100/1): Wins over Georgia Tech and Stanford shouldn’t move the needle and Notre Dame doesn’t have a conference championship game to earn points at the end of the season. Frankly, this team has no business being in the top 10 with the schedule and just one quality win, but dollar signs talk. There is no equity in making this bet, as too many things have to happen for Notre Dame to get there.