UFC Vegas 24 returns on Saturday evening with an opening broadcast schedule. Prelims kick off at 7 pm ET, with the main card available on ESPN, which starts at 10 pm ET.
Last week, McKenzie Dern did everything we thought she would. It was unusual for him to be in such a favorable pricing situation, as the bookies chose Nina Ansaroff against Dern. It seemed wrong and proved to be just that. Even the Crasier was the market’s reaction to the opening line – betting Ansaroff early, often and forcefully.
We will not see such fights often, so it is important to attack them when they arise.
Robert Whittaker-250 vs Calvin Gastelum +210
Middleweights (185 lbs.), Main Event
Whittaker, Australia’s first UFC champion, is a forward-press striker decorated in boxing, karate, hafkido and Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
No. 1-ranked Whitaker, like eighth-ranked Gastelum, spent time in the 170-pound division of the UFC. Every individual’s struggle to lose weight became inevitable due to some poor performances, returning to the 185-pound division, where Whitaker has been prominent, while Gastelum has struggled, losing just three battles in his final bout Returning to the pillar of victory.
Whitaker’s level of competition has been that of the elite, and he has dominated every battle except his loss to Israel Adesania in October 2019.
I believe that fighters may experience a groove or a raw spot, as Whitaker had to go through entering the Adesanya bout, so I give him a pass on that effort depending on his body of work I am ready, as well as how he has looked in his last two walks.
The physical nature of MMA combined with the frantic pace of Whitaker’s style portrays the picture of a dynamic warrior who has defeated every force he possesses except one. His mental state, once a question mark, has been resolved after recent results, giving Whitaker tremendous confidence and momentum.
Physically, Gastelum appears more rounded than Ripped, but how he looks does not measure his game. He is a wrestling-based Southeastern boxing prowess and a black belt in 10th planet GU-Jitsu.
Gastelum is fast, powerful and often underestimated. He has previously been in the main-event spotlight and is eager to revive his career by getting a chance to engage top-ranked Whitaker after his last-minute title fight was canceled in February 2019.
Gastelum’s level of competition is not near Whittaker’s, so considering all aspects of this boxing, Whitaker’s renewed focus and recent results have led me to respect him as a firm.
Both men have strength, cardio and determination. May be one of the most exciting fights of the year, it is mine that Gastelum can be a little faster. Whitaker will be announcing the split to see that he is actually standing in the queue to face the champion Adesanya.
In this fight, each person will look to control the middle of the octagon and suppress the other’s back with punching pressure. At 185 pounds and a small cage, this fight is sure to be explosive and frenzied. This matchup creates an actual throwdown.
Whitaker was -250 in 2019 when this bout was canceled, and he opened -250 for this fight. I believe the original price was correct, but now I think Whitaker is probably underestimated at -250.
For this fight: 4.5 rounds, over-145.
Pass pending weight-ins.
Jeremy Stephens-130 vs Drucker Close +110
Lightweights (155 lbs.), Co-main event
The ninth-ranked Stephens stepped up to the lightweight division to fight Unlocked Clos.
The motivation for the 34-year-old Stephens should revolve around the difficulty of making 145 pounds, coupled with the fact that he has lost his last four bouts to capable wings.
The increase in weight can actually contribute to the success of fighters as they are able to work on their game plan and conditioning rather than losing weight, which leads me to some frustration in this matter.
Stephens’ style makes for a great look, but it is not conducive to career longevity. He is a basic force who stings to strike out opponents. In the process, he has given up a lot of drugs, but he has also taken some.
Stephen’s power will be increased to this weight, which is terrifying. He is looking to find engagement with Clos and toe to toe where he is most comfortable. Although he will be explosive and powerful, it will be seen whether he will be able to remain active at high speed for 15 minutes.
Klose competed favorably against Bennil Darush in his last outing, before becoming overly excited after Daryush was hurt and pressed straight into a shot that signaled the end of that bout. Klaus has learned a lot from that fight, and with a short game plan involving long-term pressure of the patient, I think it’s a good chance to take Stephens deep and expose him as of late.
It will be interesting to see how Stephens progresses in this size from the first round. But Close has also followed Unknown in this scrap. Ever since he left the MMA Lab in Phoenix, he has been traveling in and out of various Phoenix gyms. He has not yet found a home, choosing to train all over the valley.
This matchup has all-out combat potential if Stephens has his way or a technical glitch if Klaus can maintain his mindset and beat the old warrior with accurate volume striking.
Total for this fight: 2.5 rounds, over-170.
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