Rookie tight ends are notorious for being weak fantasy contributors. Wide receivers don’t carry the same stigma, but certainly there are significant risks involved if you plan to rely on one on your fantasy roster.
This year’s crop has what is viewed as exceptional talent. But with receivers also being selected higher in NFL drafts than in the past, they often land on teams that aren’t so good – otherwise they wouldn’t be drafting so high.
Ja’Marr Chase falls perfectly into this category. Now, an argument can be made that the Bengals would have been a better team last season had quarterback Joe Burrow not suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10.
People have worries about the dysfunctional Bengals offensive line. Their line wasn’t good last year either, but they averaged 24.25 points in eight games Burrow finished. They averaged just 14.63 in games he didn’t. They scored fewer than 10 just once in the eight Burrow complete games. They scored 10 or fewer in five of the eight he did not finish.
So our worries aren’t the potential of the Bengals’ offense, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have worries. Burrow has not looked particularly good in the preseason and had some yips early on in training camp, coming off a torn ACL. That is a bit worrisome. But what worries us more are the underwhelming reviews of Chase in the preseason.
Cincinnati also has Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to absorb a big chunk of Burrow’s targets. So they don’t need to force-feed the rookie. If he lags behind, the others inherit his share of wide receiver volume. Considering Chase is often drafted in close proximity as his teammates – Higgins in rounds 6-7, Chase in 7-8, Boyd around Round 9 — we can just as well draft one of the other receivers. Which leaves us out of the chase for Chase.
We are a bit more optimistic about DeVonta Smith in Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts looked OK in his four starts last season – great in fantasy but just meh in real life. Granted, the Eagles’ receiving options we’re exactly otherworldly. There was Jalen Reagor and Greg Ward, neither of whom were consistent or enormously productive. Hurts had tight end Dallas Goedart, who is back and should receive a nice share of the passing volume (though don’t sleep Zach Ertz if he isn’t traded).
And there was the Amazing Month of Travis Fulgham – a span of five games to start the season in which he racked up 29 receptions, 435 yards and four touchdowns. He has never been spotted again. He has become a tale of mythic legend, like Big Foot, or the Loch Ness monster. There is grainy footage of a catch or two in the following weeks, but those could just be ghost stories and doctored highlights. We’re not buying the fact he arrived then dropped off the face of the fantasy earth so quickly. No Big Foot-style fantastic folk tales for us. We think he was abducted by aliens. And those aliens have given no sign they plan to return him, so we don’t consider Fulgham an impediment to Smith’s production.
Hence, Smith stands to inherit a large portion of the WR workload. With an ADP right in line with Chase (around the seventh round), we much prefer Smith.
Jaylen Waddle had his talents drafted to South Beach, where he is reunited with former Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. And though we like Waddle’s talent, we worry about the fact Tua, in nine starts last season, averaged barely 200 yards passing per game and barely more than one TD per game. Add in the fact we anticipate regression by the Dolphins as a whole, and Waddle isn’t a name who sparks interests for the Madman, even in the ninth round. We would rather have Jarvis Landry or Michael Pittman Jr. Or better, at present, you might even get Marquez Callaway in that range, but that probably won’t last.
Kadarius Toney (Giants), Elijah Moore (Jets), Nico Collins (Texans) or Rondale Moore (Cardinals) aren’t guys that light a fire. Toney has missed much of camp. Moore is tied to a rookie QB who seems to favor Corey Davis. Moore has a lot of surrounding talent to compete with in Arizona. And Collins, well, he plays for the Texans – who would be the leading candidate for relegation. Oh wait, the NFL doesn’t have relegation. Guess we can just expect the Texans to stink for quite some time.
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