When it comes to interrupting hockey games late in the regular season, the perceived motivation of a team relative to its opponents is a big factor for many bookies, and rightly so.
Make no mistake about it, teams that are out of the race are not going to compete as fiercely as they are fighting for a playoff spot or division. However, the former is often given more weight than the latter, and this may not be the proper way to go about it.
Relying solely on gusto-sentiment to determine which team has a motivating edge in a given matchup is dangerous. Motivation is a factor that speculators consider when setting their lines, and if they are not accurate in their evaluation, the odds will usually be corrected quickly upon their release.
It is best for Betters to adjust his expectations slightly, based on which the team has more to play with eyes closed on the teams that have their backs against the wall. The speedy bookies see motivation as just one more factor, for which they have to approach Monday and Tuesday for two games between the Dallas Stars and Carolina Hurricanes.
Hurricane remain in first place, while the Stars sit just outside the playoff picture with two games in the hands of the Predators, who were on their fourth entry on Sunday. Both teams have a lot to play for but many bookies will watch the stars and write off the storm completely.
Although the Stars deserve a slight edge given their circumstances, BetmMM bets the team anywhere near the current price of +100 given by them.
By my estimation, the storm will beat about 61 percent of the stars at the time, which translates to a price of -155. Odds of DraftKings missed the mark with their opening value of -134, meaning they would win only 57 percent of the games.
Not only can we see Hurricane Teravane’s return to the Hurricanes’ lineup on Monday, but the Stars could very well be without defenseman John Klingberg as he missed the game against the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday with an injury . Alexander Radulov is sealed for the rest of the season and Roop Hintaj seems an evergreen game-time decision. If the stars are without another important piece, crossing it may be too much.
Betters can also forget about seeing Tyler Segin on Monday, according to head coach Rick Bowness, who said the contact is not ready to participate in practice. Carolina has a season series and is in a good position to improve its 5–1 record against the Stars in this set of back-to-back games. The team’s chances of winning increase if Petr Mryk, who scored on time to take the Stars, is healthy, but both Alex Nedeljakovic and James Reimer are able to handle this worthy Stars team.
At -145 or giving the Storm a better value on the moneyline is a prerequisite, but if both Terraven and Majek return to the lineup, it may still be reasonable to pay a larger price.
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