The NFL Draft is like Christmas for Football Nerd: a brief, spectacular spectacle for fans in the midst of a bleak offense, where every team renews hope, if only for a few hours. Even the Jets fans can come out of the draft with a reason to believe, before their spirits are crushed once again in early September.
This is also a good time for impure people. First time in months, and last time For Month, you can spend many hours betting on the NFL. Pay attention to you, not actual football, but the anticipation can only be as dramatic as a game.
It is becoming possible to win money on the draft of how the NFL media is connected. Like Thursday’s first round (ahead of all odds) here are some prop bets we have BetMGM Sportsbook):
Micah Parsons draft position, over 13.5: -120
If you asked me for a pencil a few months ago in Parsons’ draft position, I’d have said he was a lock for the top 10. The middle linebacker has excellent sideline-to-sideline speed and should be able to step in as an early starter. But maturity concerns in the reports forced him to slide down the boards of the teams, and were named in a harassing lawsuit that was reportedly derogatory of the young players.
The only team that has become a real threat to draft Parsons before the 14th pick. At No. 9 is the Broncos. Vic Fangio is in love with a colorful linebacker (Roquan Smith, Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman), and Parsons fits the mold. But Denver has other requirements, Cornerbacks among them, and Patrick Sartain II and Jessie Horn both offer similar pedigrees without the red flag. Denver can also take a quarterback (they favor doing so at BetzMMM at -110), or trade back with a QB-needy team if one falls. Slide a bit on Thursday night rather than Parsons.
Detailed position of first drafted player, wide receiver: +200
They will have to do this this year, right? Green Bay traded infamously to select Jordan Love, a position of need in a potential historic class, with his first pick of the 2020 draft instead of selecting the receiver. In 2021, they draft a spot first, wide receiver is still a position of need, and this class could be as good as last year.
At number 29, Green Bay is in a slot where a pass can be scored on a catch: Ole Miss’ Eliza Moore, LSU’s Terrace Marshall Jr. and Florida’s Kadri Tony are all mockdrilled at the end of the first round. If Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman falls on this pick for some reason (more on those later), expect the Packers’ surge.
If you don’t think they’ll draft a receiver, there’s another possibility – currently at +350. Kevin King has only been on contract for a year, and has not played himself into Green Bay’s long-term plans. You can also take both these bets and come out in green if one of them hits.
Jessie Horn draft status under 12.5: -115
This pick is betting on two things: The Cowboys (No. 10) are not greedy and can take on another offensive player, and the Eagles (No. 12) do not trade out of their pick. Every mock draft leads Dallas to a corner of Horn or Patrick Sartain (whose unanimous CB1 slot slips after Horn’s Electric Pro slips the day after). Reports state that the Eagles are calling, but they are already trading down, and Howie Rosman always calls.
Philadelphia could take a wide receiver if DeVanta Smith or Jaylen Wadle are still on the board, but both the Broncos and Panthers are CB-needy as well. The veteran (number 11) has also inquired about doing business below, and this is the main corner area. Horn is an elite prospect, and has plenty of chances to go off the board before taking him. If he selects the first defensive player, he will not suffer a setback.
Rashod Bateman draft status, under 26.5: +120
It seems unanimously that the fourth-best wide receiver pick should be off the board before pick number 26, so I had to double check to make sure it was not a typo to do it in plus aud. But in fact, it was not. So naturally, I started second-guessing myself. Is it possible that not enough teams to select before this pick need a receiver, and Bateman collapses?
No not really. The Bears (No. 20), Colts (No. 21), Titans (No. 22), Jets (No. 23) and Jaguars (No. 25) are all in the market. The Ravens, at the age of 27, feel (and are rumored to be) the ultimate final location for Batman to land, which is, yes, the loser here. But with two first rounders, they could easily take a select few steps to pass to those other teams.
Still, though, +120 sounds fishy? Vegas is always something we know is not right? Eh. Maybe not this time. Do not finish this one.
Justin Fields No. 3 overall pick: +500
I know I know. You all heard the news that the 49ers limited their pick to either Mack Jones or Trey Lance. Guess what? This is the season of the song. The majority of the “rumors” coming from the media this week will be for deliberate smokers from the front offices, designed to confuse the other 31 teams in the draft.
49 Why would people exclude smokers if they theoretically choose their QBs, you may ask? We all believe that Zach Wilson is ranked No. 2 overall in the Jets. But what if Kyle Shanahan, who has referred to the entire Jet coaching staff, started praising Fields the week before the draft? Will New York start thinking, hmm, maybe if our old boss is in love with this man, we should think deeply about him?
It is not certain, is certain. Jones or Lance is probably the pick here. But +500 implies that involuntary. And with every rumor we hear about those other people, the odds should increase. It may not save your whole life on this stake, but I see no reason to not sprinkle a few bucks on it.
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