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We’ve narrowed the NCAA Tournament field from 68 to 16 and now feels like the appropriate time to take stock of the futures market.
Gonzaga (+230) remains the favorite to cut down the nets in New Orleans while fellow top seeds Kansas (+450) and Arizona (+500) closely follow the Bulldogs.
But which futures bets have the best value on the current board? Without further delay, here are some of my best futures bets for both the regional semifinals and national championship markets.
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Best Bet No. 1: UCLA to Reach Final Four (+225)
A chaotic start to the East Region has left the three, four, eight, and 15 seeds as the four participants in the regional semifinals. Of those four, I believe the fourth-seeded UCLA Bruins are well-positioned to emerge from the region.
The No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (-125) are the favorites to advance out of the region, but I believe that price is more-so a reflection of bookmakers’ certainty it will escape Saint Peter’s in the next round. However, I personally believe UCLA is a better, more balanced side.
Head coach Mick Cronin’s squad owns the sixth-best adjusted efficiency margin among tournament teams as well as the fifth-best adjusted defensive efficiency, both per kenpom.com. And although the Boilermakers own the second-best adjusted offensive efficiency among tournament teams, UCLA is a respectable eighth in that category.
Assuming seeding holds and Purdue and UCLA meet in the regional final, I would make UCLA a favorite in that game. The reasoning? Purdue is atrocious on the defensive end. Of the 16 teams left in the tournament, head coach Matt Painter’s squad sits 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Put that metric up against a UCLA offense that posted its fourth-best effective field-goal percentage all season and third-best offensive rating (per sports-reference.com) against a very good St. Mary’s defense and I believe there are reasons to believe in the Bruins.
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Best Bet No. 2: Kansas Jayhawks to Reach the Final Four (-175)
We tipped Kansas to advance from this region at the beginning of the tournament and, while I’m not normally one to lay this big a price, this region has somehow become even more favorable for the Jayhawks.
Providence will be the opponent for head coach Bill Self’s side in the regional semifinal, but should Kansas get through it’s guaranteed to face a double-digit seed in the regional final. I believe Kansas’s price to reach the national semifinals should be closer to -215, so there’s a touch of value in terms of implied probability at the current price.
Beyond that implied probability edge, there are reasons to get behind the Jayhawks. A 79-72 second-round win over Creighton could provide some concern, but that game produced the fourth-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating for Kansas since Feb. 1.
Additionally, I’m encouraged by the fact Kansas isn’t settling for three-point attempts – the game against Creighton saw its third-lowest three-point attempt rate this season – and has shown an ability to get to the free-throw line. In its last two games against tournament teams with a top-10 seed, Kansas has averaged 26 free-throw attempts and an 87 percent conversion rate.
That should help it roll easily against a Providence side sitting 13th of 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency and (potentially) against a Miami that ranks dead-last in that same category. Even if it is Iowa State in the regional final, Kansas won both head-to-head meetings this season and should cruise.
I can get behind a Kansas national champion future too at the current price, but ultimately believe this is the safest play.
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