[ad_1]
Just when we thought he was out, Aaron Rodgers pulls (Packers fans) back in. And then, a trade shocker: the Seahawks sent Super Bowl-winning quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos. It was a wild day in the NFL, to say the least.
With sportsbooks already scrambling to adjust odds with the news that Aaron Rodgers will return to Green Bay earlier in the day, the Wilson trade forced sportsbooks to pull Super Bowl 2023 odds down for several minutes as pricing adjustments took place.
So, with all of the dust settled on the quarterback front (at least, so we think), how did the lines move? If you bet before Tuesday, how much value did you gain? And is there still value to be found on the board? Here’s how the odds for all three teams – Broncos, Packers and Seahawks – were affected:
Broncos odds after Russell Wilson trade
In January, when Super Bowl 2023 odds were released, the Denver Broncos could’ve been found in the +4000 range. However, that changed rather quickly with rumors that Aaron Rodgers’ top destination other than Green Bay was Denver, with the Broncos’ Super Bowl odds moving to around 16-1.
But on Tuesday, Aaron Rodgers decided to stay with the Packers. Denver’s Super Bowl odds plunged to around 25-1 – providing great value for sharp bettors who jumped on the line before what was to come later in the afternoon.
When the Seahawks sent Wilson to the Broncos for two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a package of players that included Drew Lock, the Broncos’ championship odds jumped all the way back up to 12-1.
Below is the up and down day as told by BetMGM Sportsbook and their Data Analyst, John Ewing…
In a loaded AFC West, Wilson and the Broncos now sit at +275 on MGM to win the division. They’ll have to get through both Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs as well as Justin Herbert’s Chargers, though the roster is loaded with young stars such as Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Bradley Chubb, Patrick Surtain, Justin Simmons and Javonte Williams.
Packers odds after Aaron Rodgers announces return
According to the Pat McAfee Show, Rodgers was considering all options. The major decision was always the Packers vs. Broncos, with some retirement discussions involved too. Ultimately, Rodgers decided that his football home is best located in Wisconsin.
We saw plenty of Packers Super Bowl odds movement, too. The announcement that the Packers were retaining Rodgers moved their odds from +1400 to +1000 on BetMGM. Obviously, this affected their divisional odds as well.
The NFC North has become one of the worst divisions in football. The Vikings just blew up their front office and will trot out solid, but unspectacular Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Unproven QB Justin Fields is expected to be under center for the Bears, who are prepared to lose Allen Robinson to free agency. And the Lions don’t have much going for them after finishing 3-13-1 in 2021.
All of this leaves the Packers as the clear favorites. On Tuesday morning, the Packers were -155 to win the division. As soon as this news broke, sportsbooks moved the lines to -190 and are now as high as -225 in some markets.
Bettors who were able to jump on that NFC North line at -155 (60.78% implied) are getting excellent value compared to the -225 (69.23%) that DraftKings currently has out.
Seahawks, NFC West odds after Russell Wilson deal
In a curious decision to say the least, the Seahawks have decided to completely reboot their roster. Russell Wilson is out, and will be replaced, for now, with Drew Lock.
The obvious downgrade at quarterback has destroyed their odds to win the NFC West. At the start of the day Tuesday, the Seahawks were +500 to win the NFC West on BetMGM. At the time, that seemed generous.
Since the trade, the Seahawks can be found as high as +1400 on BetRivers to win the NFC West. Some sportsbooks have not yet adjusted the odds for the division, since no one is rushing to bet on the Seahawks to win the NFC West.
That could be a mistake. One less team in the division to compete with helps every team in the division, giving the 49ers and Rams (consensus favorites) extra value.
[ad_2]