Last week in Bet Smart, I pegged some teams I expect to go over their 2021 NFL regular-season win total. Here are four I figure will come in on the south side of the number (odds via BetMGM):
Chicago Bears: (Under 7.5 (-115)
As much as I think Justin Fields has a good chance to make the Bears better over the next five seasons, I think what this team has on its hands for 2021 at the sport’s key position can’t be described as anything but a mess. All three quarterbacks probably expect to start, and that’s not a good way to go in. Chicago was a surprising playoff team last year after finishing 8-8, winning six games by seven or fewer points. Historically, that’s not a good indicator of future improvement; just four of the past 34 teams that accomplished that feat got better the next season. The average decline was 2.4 wins. In addition, if you look at the middle portion of the Bears’ schedule, they face a block of five straight games against Green Bay, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. That is a tough road, and should they be fortunate to win even one or two of those, they have five other spots in which I have them as underdogs of 3.4 points or more.
Miami Dolphins: Under 9.5 (-130)
I find it interesting that after winning 10 games in 2020 and being characterized as a franchise on the rise, those in the know in Vegas have reduced the Dolphins’ expected win total by a game. This despite a 17th game in 2021. I’m not a big Tua Tagovailoa fan. From what I saw last season, he was more anxious to get the ball out of his hands quickly or to check down than he was to advance it down the field. That’s not going to win consistently in the NFL. The Dolphins were fortunate in regard to turnovers, too, having enjoyed an edge of +0.6 per game. Typically, teams that do that and fail to make the playoffs tend to regress the next season. I’ll call for some further growing pains for this franchise as I see Miami playing as an underdog in its first five games.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 8.5 (-125)
It’s not often that a team will be projected to finish .500 by oddsmakers after winning its first 11 games the previous season, but that’s exactly what Pittsburgh is facing in 20201. A lukewarm offseason franchise endorsement of QB Ben Roethlisberger aside, didn’t it feel for much of the final weeks of last season, as if it were time for the Steelers to move on? And despite the feel-good attempt to make a game of it in the playoff loss to Cleveland, that was as one-sided a postseason game as you’ll see. The simple truth is that the last six games of the 2020-21 season exposed a lot of what was or is wrong with this team. The Steelers no longer win by running the football and with defense. I have tremendous respect for the job coach Mike Tomlin has done, but is it really possible to win with a style no longer fitting the coach? Perhaps the drafting of running back Najee Harris will bring a return to normalcy. I think it’s telling that my power ratings show the Steelers as underdogs of at least six points in three of the first seven games. I see a continuation of 2020’s conclusion ensuing in 2021.
Seattle Seahawks: Under 9.5 (+125)
After a rare home playoff loss last season to the Rams, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for Seattle. The franchise’s relationship with QB Russell Wilson seems to have soured, and many of the biggest contributors in the Super Bowl years have left for other pastures since Wilson’s contract has eaten up much of the cap room. The Seahawks were at their best when Wilson was just a spoke in the wheel. Now he is essentially the hub, as the entire offense revolves around him. Even though Seattle’s record has gotten slightly better over the past three seasons, the playoff loss was telling and it looks as if this franchise could be ready to hit the wall. Coach Pete Carroll’s team now qualifies for a scary angle, which finds that since 2002, only one of the 13 teams that recorded improved records in three straight seasons continued that trend. The average drop for the declining group was 4.2 wins, and the average record was 6.5-9.5. Even if they win the 17th game, that would only make 7.5 wins on this angle. I have Seattle favored in just one of its first six games. An ugly start after the playoff loss and offseason issues with Wilson could spell doom.
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