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The NFL conference championships on Sunday offer us four legitimate Super Bowl contenders, a host of fascinating players and a whole lot of betting history.
We’ve compiled an array of statistical nuggets, betting trends and things to know for both games (via Bet Labs and other historical sources).
- Since 2003, underdogs in conference championship games are 16-20 against the spread, the only round of the playoffs below .500 ATS in that span. In the Super Bowl era (since 1966), underdogs are 49-60-1 ATS in this round.
- Public sides are 7-3 against the spread so far in the playoffs. The public hasn’t finished over .500 ATS in playoffs since 2016-17.
- All four of the quarterbacks Sunday have shown ATS success in the playoffs through their careers: Pat Mahomes 7-3 (+$357); Jimmy Garoppolo 4-1 (+$270); Joe Burrow 2-0 (+$184); Matthew Stafford 3-2 (+$72).
- The Bengals (150/1) own the longest preseason Super Bowl odds to make a conference championship game since Kurt Warner and the St. Louis Rams in 1999-2000. Those Rams, also 150/1, eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. The team with the highest preseason odds to make it to this round was the 1979-80 Buccaneers at 250/1.
- Last weekend, the Chiefs were the lone favorite to survive the divisional round. The last time underdogs went 3-1 straight up in that round was in 2008-09, when the Steelers were the only survivor, beating the Chargers before going on to win the Super Bowl.
- Since Dec. 12, the Over has cashed in seven consecutive Chiefs games, surpassing the total by 11.5 ppg. It’s the longest Over streak for Kansas City in at least the last 15 years.
- In the Super Bowl era, touchdown-or-greater favorites in this round are 35-6 straight up and 24-16-1 ATS. If the Bengals were to knock off the Chiefs, this would be the biggest conference championship upset since the Ravens (+8) over the Patriots in 2013.
- The Bengals are the fourth team to enter a conference championship or a Super Bowl on at least a six-game ATS winning streak in the last 15 years. The previous three teams covered their next game.
- The Over is 14-4-2 in the NFC Championship game since 2002.
- If the 49ers advance to the Super Bowl, they will become the first team since the 2004-05 Rams to beat one division opponent three times in the same season — all listed as the underdog. St. Louis did so that year against the Seahawks.
- Garoppolo is 14-5 SU and 15-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, the best winning percentage by any quarterback as an underdog in the Super Bowl era.
- Over the past 15 years, five teams have gone into Lambeau Field and won in the playoffs, as the 49ers did last week. All five covered the spread the following week (4-1 SU). Going even further, since 2003, teams are 31-14-1 ATS (68.9 percent) after winning on the road at Lambeau Field, the most profitable prior opponent in the NFL.
- Rams TE Tyler Higbee has eclipsed his receiving yards prop in six straight.
- Ref watch: Underdogs are 32-16-2 (66.7 percent) in games worked by Carl Cheffers (49ers-Rams) the past three seasons. The Under is 79-55-1 (59 percent) since 2012 in games officiated by Bill Vinovich (Bengals-Chiefs).
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