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The Post’s Joel Sherman predicts the AL East.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
O/U wins: 92.5
Key player: Jose Berrios. The AL Cy Young winner, Robbie Ray, left as a free agent for Seattle. Toronto replaced him by signing Kevin Gausman to a five-year, $110 million contract. But the Blue Jays also extended Berrios (seven years, $131 million) rather than let him go into free agency after the 2022 season. Berrios is the pitcher in this rotation with the stuff to follow Ray as the AL Cy Young, and perhaps now, entering his age-28 season, he could be poised for the moment. With Toronto fighting to get into the postseason last year, Berrios in his final seven starts had a 2.93 ERA and a .587 OPS against.
Player who’ll need to step up: Nate Pearson. Toronto has constructed a strong rotation by importing Berrios, Gausman, Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu and watching Alek Manoah rocket by Pearson as the homegrown piece. But the Blue Jays will need depth and/or some bullpen help. Pearson, a first-round pick in 2017, has high-octane stuff, but has not been able to stay healthy enough to show his stuff fully translates.
Name you’ll get to know: Gabriel Moreno. He had visa issues and did not get into any spring training games. It didn’t matter much — with Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Reese McGuire, Toronto was working through how to handle three veteran catchers. But as soon as this year, Moreno could be pushing the others to the side.
Biggest question mark: The bullpen lacks high-end depth. Jordan Romano, Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza offer quality, and if Julian Merryweather can stay healthy he can bring electricity. But this is not a strength like the lineup or rotation.
How it’ll go down: The lineup is heavily right-handed and lost Marcus Semien, but added Matt Chapman’s power and Gold Glove at third. A healthy season for George Springer in conjunction with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should make this a top-four offense in the league. And the Blue Jays are in go-for-it-mode — what they need at the trade deadline, they will aggressively pursue.
2. New York Yankees
O/U wins: 91.5
Key player: Luis Severino. After finishing third and ninth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2017-18, respectively, Severino signed a four-year, $40 million extension. In the first three seasons of that deal, the righty pitched 18 regular-season innings due to injury. The Yankees could sure use a high-end No. 2 starter to work behind Gerrit Cole and in front of Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery and Jameson Taillon. Can Severino return to that form?
Player who’ll need to step up: Aaron Hicks. The same offseason in which Severino signed his extension, Hicks received a seven-year, $70 million deal. He has played in just 145 of 384 regular-season games since then due to injury. There are many Yankees positional players who need to rebound from injury and/or poor performance in 2021, including DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres. But the Yanks have some infield coverage. Right now, Aaron Judge is the backup center fielder with Estevan Florial and Ender Inciarte also around. So, the Yanks need Hicks healthy and productive for even 120-ish games.
Name you’ll get to know: Oswaldo Cabrera. The anticipation is for Oswald Peraza and especially Anthony Volpe. They are the touted shortstop prospects who, among other things, convinced the Yankees not to make a big play in the best free-agent shortstop class ever. But the first call-up could be Cabrera, a switch hitter who can play pretty much anywhere in the infield. A natural righty, he has developed a little pop from the left side and keeps growing on the Yankees (and scouts) as a player who can become a regular at some point.
Biggest question mark: Will the offense rebound? From 2017-2020, the Yankees finished in the top two in the AL in runs per game each year. In 2021, they were 10th. Only Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton performed well. Will a potential full year of lineup diversity — with lefty hitters such as Hicks (a switch hitter), Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo — help? What does Josh Donaldson have left?
How it’ll go down: The Yanks have the talent to win the AL East, but after pitching above expectations last year, will the rotation take a step or two back this year and will they try to acquire someone like Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo in July?
3. Tampa Bay Rays
O/U wins: 89.5
Key player: Wander Franco. The Rays have thrived to a large extent as a sum-of-the-parts squad — able to use an entire roster to the best of its ability without necessarily having many full-time stars. Franco played just 70 games last year, but finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting and then the Rays — yes, the Rays — signed him for 11 years at $182 million. He is a switch-hitting shortstop with power and patience. He is a build-around piece.
Player who’ll need to step up: Shane McClanahan. Tyler Glasnow is iffy to pitch this season after Tommy John surgery last August and an ankle procedure this spring. Shane Baz recently had loose bodies in his elbow removed and could miss two months. The Rays are expert at using a whole staff to deliver excellence. Still, high-end bulk innings have to come from someone, and unless Corey Kluber is ready to have a healthy renaissance, McClanahan is the most likely to provide it.
Name you’ll get to know: Josh Lowe. There were many reasons the Rays traded Austin Meadows to the Tigers, such as liking the return and saving money. But as big as anything was a chance to get their top positional prospect’s lefty bat onto the major league roster.
Biggest question mark: Does the pixie dust ever run out? The Rays and the Dodgers are the only teams that have played at least .555 ball in each of the past four seasons. Despite payroll constraints, Tampa Bay chased Freddie Freeman in the offseason in free agency and Matt Olson in trade. The Rays failed to land either, but it showed their mindset — they feel they have a lot of talent, but are willing to break their bank for a difference-making star.
How it’ll go down: Underestimate the Rays at your own risk. They are superb at getting more out of less than any team in the majors. The level of star they pursued in the offseason screamed they are going for it.
4. Boston Red Sox
O/U wins: 85.5
Key player: Nathan Eovaldi. He is coming off of his best career season, which included an All-Star appearance and a fourth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. Eovaldi is in the final season of a four-year, $68 million pact, so he needs to replicate an ace-like season to set himself up well for free agency. But Boston sure needs it as well. Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers. Chris Sale incurred a stress fracture of his ribs that will cost him a few months. James Paxton (Tommy John surgery) is perhaps a second-half gift. There were signs that Nick Pivetta could take a step toward solid No. 3-ish starter. But for Boston to contend in this fierce division, Eovaldi has to be really good and healthy again.
Player who’ll need to step up: Trevor Story. A lot of teams shied away from Story’s free agency, concerned about the health of his elbow and, to a lesser degree, how well he would hit without playing home games in Colorado. He agreed to play second base, with Xander Bogaerts at short, so he has a lot of changes in his life and questions about this health.
Name you’ll get to know: Triston Casas. The Red Sox did not bring back Kyle Schwarber or obtain Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson. That leaves first base open for Casas and his projectable lefty power. Will the call come this year?
Biggest question mark: The Red Sox should score, but there are uncertainties about pitching — the quality and, especially, the depth.
How it’ll go down: In the three seasons Alex Cora has managed (he was suspended in 2020), Boston is 284-202. The team plays well for him. It will have to. Four teams won at least 91 games last year in the AL East. That had never happened before since the beginning of division play in 1969. All four can make a claim as the best in the division.
5. Baltimore Orioles
O/U wins: 62.5
Key player: Adley Rutschman. The Orioles are 198 games under .500 over the last four seasons, incredible when you consider one of those seasons was just 60 games (2020). All the bad is designed to allow Baltimore to accumulate elite young talent and make a sustained run. No one embodies that hope like Rutschman. He was the top pick in the 2019 draft and his time in the minors has only accentuated the positive vibes about a switch-hitting, two-way catcher. However, he incurred a triceps injury in spring that slowed down his ascent to the majors. But he is just about inevitable this year. Is he a cornerstone?
Player who’ll need to step up: John Means. The lefty is Baltimore’s ace and it is hard to identify clearly who the No. 2 starter is. So Means needs to be excellent to help lessen Baltimore’s humiliation this year plus perhaps give the Orioles yet another trade piece to keep stockpiling young talent.
Name you’ll get to know: Grayson Rodriguez. Perhaps the heir to Means. A first-round pick in 2018, the righty fireballer is on the radar for this season.
Biggest question mark: How long does the tanking continue? No AL East team has a losing record in any season against the Orioles from 2018-2021. In the last three full seasons (2018, 2019, 2021), the team that has emerged to win the division title has gone 51-6 against Baltimore.
How it’ll go down: Baltimore is in a division with four heavyweights — 76 games against the Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees. And the Orioles remain strictly featherweight.
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