The 146th race of the Preakness Stakes will take place on Saturday, with post time at approximately 6:47 pm after being postponed to 2020 due to COVID-19, the second race for the Triple Crown is back to its normal date. Controversial Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit drew a 3-post and is a 9–5 morning-line favorite.
Here’s my breakdown of the race:
Analysis
It used to be that you would never go against Bob Baffert in the Preakness, especially since he never lost to the Kentucky Derby winner. But that was before last year: Baffert was 6-for-6 before Authentic – and all the others – had lost to the prolific filmy, Swiss Skydiver. Due to COVID-19 scheduling, the 2020 run seemed to be the most unusual preakiness so far this weekend. Baffert had to wait for two drug tests on the Medina Spirit: one on a split sample to know if he would keep his record seventh derby win, and another to see if there was any trace of that anti-inflammatory ointment in the colt’s system. Yes or No . The Medina Spirit was officially approved to run in the Preakness on Friday afternoon. Now, the biggest threat to keep the Triple Crown alive is in Baffert’s own barn.
At the insistence of the owners, the concert tour was held out of the derby. He was widely regarded as Baffert’s best healthy 3-year-old before suffering the first defeat of his career in the Arkansas Derby. Hall of Famers John Velazquez (Medina Spirit) and Mike Smith (concert tour) have a ride in the Preakness, and they are both ready to send their horses early in the race. It will be a go-to affair for all their rivals.
Main contender
While the Medina Spirit and concert tours provide the opening momentum, don’t be fooled by the midnight bourbon’s derby. He had a bumpy trip behind the wire around Churchill Downs for the first time, so he had an excuse to get back in the pack to finish sixth. Maiden winner Crowd Trade looks like the best of two horses for Chad Brown, who added Wisder winner Risk Taking last weekend. The key is brake. Johnny V. will try to bring the Medina Spirit forward and take him home just as he did in the derby. The fact is that the Medina soul has never been passed over since being in the first place. The gate-to-wire win is Baffert’s way of getting the job done in Baltimore. Watch American Pharaoh in 2015 and Justify in 2018.
Price drama
ROMBAUER won the El Camino Real Derby on a synthetic surface to qualify for Preakness, and his connections decided to take Pimlico a free pass instead of taking out a rupee to enter the derby.
If Lexington Stakes runner-up UNBRIDLED HONOR were to join him in a race that he rarely enters these days, Todd would be completing the player’s career Triple Crown. KEEPMEINMIND finished seventh in the derby, but like Rombauer and Belgaum Honor, he would appreciate the pace at the front. If the Baffert boys get too serious about playing catch-me-if-you-can against each other, there may be a chance for longer shots.
$ 100 wager strategy
$ 50 Exact Box: Medina Spirit-Concert Tour
Top 4 picks
1. Medina soul; 2. concert tour; 3. Midnight Bourbon; 4. Rombauer.
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