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To paraphrase Bill Belichick: We’re on to Tampa. Finally.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: There are some thunderstorms in the forecast for this week’s PGA Tour event at Innisbrook in Palm Harbor, Fla.
OK, so precipitation in the Tampa area this Saturday probably won’t cause massive delays for the Valspar Championship, but after a year which started with more than two full months of perfect weather, last week’s often-suspended Players Championship should have us pining for four days as scheduled.
Speaking of which, I won’t delay the picks any longer, as The Players ended about five minutes ago, and I’m pretty sure the Valspar starts in another five minutes, so get those bets in quickly. (Odds from BetMGM.)
Outright winner: Gary Woodland (50/1)
I don’t love this. You need to know that right off the bat. There are times when I really like my pre-tourney outright selection, but this isn’t one of ’em.
I was searching for a player who didn’t have to wait out the entire weekend at The Players, ostensibly coming into this one a little more well-rested than those who played the entire thing. (I like Keegan Bradley, but coming off a Monday-evening title contention, some lethargy is inevitable.) But I didn’t want a guy who’d just missed the cut and has short odds this week, that scares me just a little. (Sure, maybe Collin Morikawa was simply mired in the bad draw last week, but I’m not paying down to 11/1 to find out.)
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So instead, I went seeking a player who didn’t make the cut and owns some longer odds, but also one who should have some win equity; I mean, there’s no point in taking a guy with a massive number who can’t win. (Matt Wallace is a nice player with a big price, but he hasn’t made a single cut in the U.S. yet this year.)
Put all those things together and the dial landed on Woodland, who won this tournament 11 years ago, but admittedly hasn’t done much since. He has MCs in four of his last six appearances and nothing inside the top 40.
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Even though he missed the cut at The Players last week, he was right there in the mix at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago, as a pair of pars on the final two holes would’ve given him the title. He’s certainly back to playing some better golf and could maybe find some good vibes at this one.
But again: If we ranked PGA Tour plays like a college football bowl game confidence pool, this one might be last on my list. Full transparency.
Top-five finish: Jason Kokrak (7/1)
With five finishes of 14th or better in the last seven editions of this event, Kokrak is one of the lone-course horses who should be a reliable play this week.
He’s yet to play his best golf this year, but a pair of T-26 results prior to a share of 53rd at The Players should be enough to make us at least slightly optimistic. And with three wins over the past year-and-a-half, you know there’s some win equity, too.
Top-10 finish: Aaron Wise (5/1)
Wise is playing for a sixth consecutive week and owns just one finish better than 50th so far, but we’ll call this a “hunchy” play. I still think there are going to be a few weeks when he contends for some titles.
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