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For the second straight year, Houston and Illinois are in the same region of the NCAA Tournament bracket. But unlike last season, when the Elite Eight collision course was avoided when the Illini lost early, Illinois survived a last-second contest with Chattanooga and will face Houston in Pittsburgh to begin the eight-game Sunday slate.
Illinois and Chattanooga may not have played the most high quality game of the first round, but the Fighting Illini battled from down double digits in the second half and avoided a defeat to the Mocs at the buzzer to advance to the second round. Chattanooga had two looks to win the game in the final seconds and led for 38 minutes, but the Illini survived, 54-53.
Houston used its red-hot shooting at the beginning of its first-round game against UAB and held off multiple comeback attempts from the Blazers. The plurality of brackets had Illinois making the Sweet 16 and the Illini are the higher seed, but the market sees the Cougars as a considerably better team. The Cougars won, 82-68, and led by at least eight the entire second half.
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I circled this as a potential Houston spot when the bracket came out, and though we’re not getting the best number with Houston laying multiple possessions, the Cougars are clearly the better team. And more importantly, they’re the more consistent team. Andre Curbelo and Trent Frazier are apt to crumble at any point, and the defense of the Cougars always travels, even if this game is ugly.
Betting on March Madness 2022?
When teams have had the ability to neutralize Kofi Cockburn and prevent easy open looks for the Illinois shooters, it’s not hard to shut down the Illinois’ offense. Houston takes away post-ups and 3-pointers better than any defense in the entire country, and for that reason I’m expecting Houston to have no issues dispatching Illinois.
Only a great Curbelo and Frazier game will make this close. Because we’re not getting the best of the number, I wouldn’t lay more than four points.
The play: Houston -4 or better
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