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VSiN’s college football expert offers up some betting angles for a handful of Saturday’s top games.
Michigan State at Ohio State (-18.5, 68.5)
This should feel familiar. Last week, the Buckeyes closed as a 19-point favorite over Purdue. Given how well the Boilermakers have played in spurts, it felt like a lot. Ohio State responded with 59 points and comfortably covered the big number.
It was the first time in three games Ryan Day’s team covered the spread. Michigan State, coming off a disappointing loss to the same team Ohio State just blew out, recovered nicely against Maryland. Sparty nearly doubled up the Terps, 40-21, covering the 11.5 points with ease. In terms of importance, this game is massive.
It could decide the Big Ten East, and it will almost certainly impact the playoff. It also could help swing the Heisman as C.J. Stroud (+225 at BetMGM) and Kenneth Walker III (7/2) duke it out as two of the favorites. But the number is this size for a reason, and Ohio State might finally be hitting its stride.
Arkansas at Alabama (-20.5, 58.5)
Arkansas, which has faced a grueling schedule in 2021, travels to Tuscaloosa for another gargantuan tussle. The Hogs outlasted LSU, 16-13, in OT last week, which was either an Arky push or win depending on what number you had. Alabama, meanwhile, absolutely destroyed New Mexico State, covering the 50.5-point spread.
The Crimson Tide have now covered five of the past seven games. On the topic of the Heisman, Bryce Young can improve his candidacy (+175) with another massive game in a big spot. Nick Saban’s team can also lock up its division with a win, which would guarantee us the Georgia-Alabama matchup we’ve been waiting for. I’m not crazy about the line, although I do lean a bit toward the Over.
SMU at Cincinnati (-10.5, 65.5)
With Cincinnati’s schedule lacking consistent firepower, SMU felt like the team to test the Bearcats or give the résumé a boost. Weeks later and that is still partially the case. Cincinnati has been greater than a three-touchdown favorite in the past four games, and it hasn’t covered the spread in any of them.
In fact, the Bearcats have looked largely lackluster over much of the past month. SMU can relate. The Mustangs lost back-to-back games against Houston and Memphis before blowing out UCF last week. In terms of offense, SMU has plenty of it. And the total in this game speaks to the kind of matchup we might get. The end result could be tight and a great deal of fun.
Wake Forest at Clemson (-4.5, 56.5)
Wake Forest is ranked, and Clemson is not. At this point in the year, we shouldn’t be surprised, but it still is strange to see. The fact that Clemson is only a 4.5-point favorite would have sounded wild four months ago. Now? I imagine many are surprised the Tigers are the favorite at all.
Clemson has quietly won five of six games, albeit against competition it should beat somewhat convincingly. On Saturday, it failed to cover the 40.5-point spread against UConn, though it made a push to do so. On the other side, Wake Forest was able to get past NC State. This was a solid win. The Demon Deacons also covered the spread for the third time in four games. To me, this game is about pacing and style. Wake has not played a defense this good. But if Clemson gives up points, can the offense do enough to counter?
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