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Any seasoned punter will tell you that box scores are often deceiving and that every win, loss or draw needs context.
On paper, it looks like the Washington Capitals have righted the ship. After a wobbly February, the Caps went 4-0-1 through a tough stretch of schedule that saw them play Carolina, Calgary and Edmonton. The Caps are back, right?
Not so fast.
While W ashington deserves credit getting nine points from 10 through a tricky two weeks, the underlying metrics from this recent stretch show that Peter Laviolette’s side has over-performed relative to its underlying metrics at 5-on-5.
Over their last five games, the Capitals have a +8 goal differential with 21 goals scored and 13 conceded. Their 5-on-5 numbers don’t paint such a rosy picture however, as the Capitals have skated to a +1 differential at even strength with 10 goals for and nine against. And even those pedestrian numbers are a bit flattering according to their -2.77 expected goal differential at 5-on-5.
A five-game stretch is a small sample of course, but the truth is that Washington has been sputtering for quite some time. Since the NHL returned from its holiday pause on Dec. 27, the Capitals have the 17th-best points percentage in the NHL (.534) and the 21st-best expected goals rate (47.5%).
Everything you need to know to bet on sports like a pro:
Washington’s recent 4-0-1 stretch may look good on the surface, but the predictive metrics suggest that the Caps are a paper tiger. Enter a New York Islanders team that has begun to find some form after a biblically tough first half of the season and you’ve got a recipe for an upset on Tuesday night. We like the Islanders on the moneyline at +135.
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