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It’s open season on everything Jets: the quarterback, the offensive coordinator, the head coach, the general manager. The criticism hasn’t been kind and most of it has been fair.
Zach Wilson suffered his first knee injury before leading the Jets to their first point in a first quarter. OC Mike LaFleur does look overmatched so far, if not totally lost. Robert Saleh has yet to define any kind of identity on either side of the ball, aside from a hard-hitting performance by the defense in the surprise win over the Titans. And far too few of Joe Douglas’ premium draft picks and veteran acquisitions are healthy and contributing.
Those things are all true, but I’m not ready to throw out this entire regime after six weeks. I wouldn’t say I have “unwavering, steadfast confidence” in this group, as owner Woody Johnson says he does. But I’m willing to give Wilson, LaFleur and Saleh more of a chance.
As for Douglas, yes he just had to give up a late draft choice to bring in Joe Flacco when he could have had a veteran quarterback here all along for free. But Douglas did get a ton in exchange for Jamal Adams and Sam Darnold, and got a fourth-rounder from the Vikings for a sixth and tight end Chris Herndon, who has one catch for 2 yards this season. You can’t blame him for Mekhi Becton’s kneecap and Carl Lawson’s Achilles.
Anyway, I was looking for any support for taking the Jets as double-digit underdogs off a 54-13 loss. The only thing I could find is a trend saying underdogs off a blowout loss of 20-plus points are 7-4 ATS this season, including the Jets’ win over the Titans following a 26-0 loss at Denver. I don’t see that happening again here, as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will be a threat to score on every possession. Mike White not only won’t be able to do that, he could aid the Bengals’ total with turnovers.
The pick: Bengals, -10.5.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1.5) over Tennessee Titans
Line flipped from Colts +1 to -1.5 on Thursday, a sign sharp bettors expect a bit of a comedown for the Titans after their back-to-back wins over the Bills and Chiefs. Indianapolis has a quick turnaround off a Sunday night win over the 49ers in the rain in Santa Clara, Calif., but is a team that’s rarely penalized and is plus-9 in turnovers to the Titans minus-1.
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS
Would be a little more worried if it’s announced Tyrod Taylor will return for the Texans. But even if he does, he’ll be rusty and minus Mark Ingram, who was traded to the Saints. Figuring Rams will be more into this after a scare by the Lions.
Carolina Panthers (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS
Panthers have lost four in a row but now Sam Darnold is essentially playing for his career, and I like that dynamic. This game also fits the successful road ’dogs +6 or less trend.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS
Scary pick because the Browns are now the better team in this matchup. But we get the hook and Mike Tomlin (40-20-2 ATS as an underdog), and it fits a trend we’ve been following — road ’dogs +6 or less are 26-11 ATS this season.
DETROIT LIONS (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
Dan Campbell’s team is 0-7 straight up but 4-3 ATS as this man coaches to win. Happy to grab the hook here against the Eagles in a road back-to-back spot.
CHICAGO BEARS (+4) over San Francisco 49ers
Didn’t bite on the post-blowout trend with the Jets (see above) but will here with the Bears, who were destroyed by the Bucs, 38-3. Jimmy Garoppolo knows Tom Brady, but he’s no Tom Brady.
BUFFALO BILLS (-14) over Miami Dolphins
Hate the thought of giving two touchdowns in a division game, but off a loss and a bye, this certainly looks to be a spot where the Bills could blow out someone. And they have beaten the Dolphins already, 35-0.
New England Patriots (+5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
L.A. is also off a loss and a bye, but it’s playing Bill Belichick, not Miami. Patriots have beaten only the Jets and Texans, but they should have beaten the elite Buccaneers and Cowboys. Also, here’s another road ’dog +6 or less.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars
I love this trend we’ve been referencing and am riding it everywhere else except in Seattle. I could consider Jags +6 but not +3.5. Now way these teams should be rated a half-point apart beyond the 3 for a very tough home field. Expecting an impactful game from Jamal Adams. Geno Smith has two covers in losses, and his first win won’t be this much of a nail-biter.
Washington Football Team (+3) over DENVER BRONCOS
The WFT outgained the Packers 430 yards to 304, but red-zone problems cost it the cover and a chance at a huge upset. Taylor Heinicke could lead the smaller upset here. WFT is our final team in the road ’dogs +6 or less trend for this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Finding reasons to go against Brady and the Bucs has proven costly. Yes, this is a lot to be giving the Saints in the Superdome, but they have a short week after their Monday nighter, and their offense seems to be reduced to handoffs and dump-offs to Alvin Kamara.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+2) over Dallas Cowboys
Sharp bettors have sent this line to an uncomfortable number, almost an affront to a Cowboys team that’s 5-1 overall and 6-0 ATS. Vikings do have a lot to offer with Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. They lost at Arizona on a missed field goal and held the Browns’ excellent offense to seven points.
Best bets: Seahawks, Vikings, Giants.
Lock of the week: Seahawks (Locks 4-2 in 2021).
Last week: 7-6 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.
Thursday: Packers (W).
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