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Democrat Kathy Hochul holds a slim 4-percentage-point lead over presumptive Republican Party nominee Lee Zeldin in the race for governor, a new survey reveals.
The same poll shows Zeldin leading disgraced ex-Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo by six percentage points in a hypothetical match-up.
Hochul — the former lieutenant governor who became the New York’s chief executive last August after Cuomo resigned amid a sexual harassment scandal — garnered the support of 35% of voters to Zeldin’s 31%, with about a third of the voters undecided.
The survey of 830 likely voters — conducted by research company co/efficient for the Republican consulting firm Big Dog Strategies — has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
There are warning signs for Hochul, according to the poll. Forty-one percent of voters view her unfavorably and 31% favorably — with more than a quarter undecided.
Hochul only led Zeldin, a Long Island congressman, in the downstate New York City and suburban market, 35% to 30%.
“Hochul is underperforming in areas where she needs to do well. It shows that Long Island is moving back into Republican hands,” said Big Dog consulting founder Chris Grant.
But Hochul led Zeldin in her hometown Buffalo region 60% to 19%.
The survey was conducted from March 28-30 after Hochul announced the $1 billion taxpayer subsidy deal to help build a new stadium for the Buffalo Bills and keep the team in Western New York for at least the next 30 years.
“I think she gets a bit of a glow from the Bills announcement. Also, don’t underestimate the ‘hometown girl does well factor,’” Grant said.
Zeldin led Hochul by more than 35 points in the Syracuse region and was slightly ahead in other parts of upstate.
Women favored Hochul over Zeldin by nine points, while men were split between the two.
The poll showed Hochul with tepid support from key Democratic constituencies — blacks and Latinos.
Still, Zeldin would have a better chance of defeating the scandal-scarred Cuomo in the Democratic-leaning state.
The Big Dog Strategies survey has 37% of voters backing Zeldin, 31% backing Cuomo and a third undecided.
White voters favored Zeldin by a 16-point margin, while blacks favored Cuomo by a 37-point margin — a much stronger figure than Hochul had among black voters.
Zeldin runs stronger against Cuomo than Hochul upstate and holds a tiny 2-point lead over the ex-governor in the downstate region.
The poll assumes both Hochul and Zeldin will be the nominees of their party — though both face primaries.
Hochul will square off against city Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi in the Democratic primary.
Zeldin faces a GOP primary from Andrew Giuliani, the son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani who served as a White House aide to former President Donald Trump, as well as former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson.
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