It is time to take a different approach to the college basketball futures market. This is to use a futures mindset to forecast potential in-tournament plays prior to the 68’s zone announcement.
Now move on to the first-round matchups of the NCAA Tournament that draw the most attention: 5-12 and 8-9 games. A folklore quality surrounds 5–12 games because it is a fertile field for upsets, and 8-9 is theoretically the closest matchup.
After expanding the field in 1985, the 12th seed won 50 games straight and fell 90 times, a juicy 35.71 win percentage. Of those 50 winners, 19 also won the next round of play.
In the 2019 tournament, the 12th seed won three of the four games. Even in New Mexico State’s only victory for Auburn of the fifth seed, the underdog is still involved.
From 2015–19, the deviation of prevalence in those sports ranged from −12 to −1, with an average spread of −6.95. Apparently, the bookies have more than 12 seeds compared to the selection committee.
For an 8-9 game since 1985, the lower seed holds a winning record in 72–68. Once again, seeing what happened in the last tournament, the eighth seed lost one game each. The eighth seed was favored in all three games with a spread from -3.5 to -1.5.
But make sure that prejudice and confirmation do not fall prey to prejudice and just blindly place bets 12 and 9. Of course, low seed can be very good. That decision needs to come after all relevant data is used in the handicapping toolbox.
In games 5–12 and 8–9, pay attention to the coach’s individual NCAA tournament history.
College basketball coaches’ decisions prior to the tournament, such as travel schedules and scouting, as well as during the game, have the most significant effects on any decision-makers in the game. This is why the performance of the previous tournament during March handicapping is a good variable for the factor.
So to start waiting. Look at bracketology sites, such as bracketmetrics.com, and see which teams currently have these four seeding slots. These games may not have happened because seed-planting is still so fluid, but it gives an idea of how these coaches have performed in the tournament. The coach’s tournament win-loss record has more value this year as it is becoming trendy to make straight moneyline plays.
That information, regardless of seedbed, should be used during any bracket analysis.
For example, Chris Beard of Texas Tech has a 9–3 record in the NCAA tournament – 3–0 in the first round, 4–0 as a high seed, and 5–3 as a low seed.
Greg McDermott of Creighton has seen largely opposite results – 3-8 overall in the tournament, 3-5 in the first round, 3-3 as the high seed and 0-5 as the lower seed.
Michigan State legend Tom Izzo is 52-21 overall in the NCAAS. Their teams are 17–5 in the first round, 38–10 as the high seed and 14–11 as the lower seed. Keep in mind that if the Spartans get 11th or 12th seed.
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