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The concept is always so beautiful. If you are a sports fan, first comes the perfect possibilities. The dreams. They all come before the games. Before reality.
Think about how if you were a Nets fan on the day they obtained James Harden last season. You began to do the math about what it all would look like over an extended period. The offensive upside. The devilish decisions opponents would have to make in coverage. The scoreboard churning relentlessly.
It turned out to be 16 games. It turned out to be 365 total minutes as injury and COVID restrictions and finally Harden’s trade this year to Philly fully exterminated the dream scenarios.
Now we are here with the Mets. There was that day not long before the lockout when the Mets pushed Steve Cohen’s dollars in front of Max Scherzer — made him the richest per annum player ever and not by a penny or a dollar. That was the first time you could imagine deGrom and Scherzer, Scherzer and deGrom. It was the first time you could think about a three-game series and what an opponent might be thinking as they looked at two starters and five Cy Youngs and among the filthiest stuff ever recorded.
There they were two-plus weeks ago. Side-by-side on the workout mounds just outside the main field at Clover Park. Both in a Mets uniform. It was not a theory any longer. Showalter revealed deGrom would get the Nationals in the April 7 opener, Scherzer would go in Game 2 against his old squad. The biggest worry then was concerns about figuring out how to watch Scherzer’s outing on Apple TV+.
Until that wasn’t the biggest problem.
DeGrom reported tightness in his shoulder Thursday. He went for an MRI exam on Friday. The result, the Mets announced, was a stress reaction on his scapula. DeGrom is now scheduled not to pick up a baseball for up to four weeks. The sunniest forecast, therefore, puts him back in the rotation around Memorial Day.
This was revealed on April Fool’s Day, but this was no Sidd Finch-level prank. The non-fictional Mets fireballer, deGrom, was going to be sidelined yet again. He did not pitch after July 7 last season due to an elbow injury, curtailing what was setting up as one of the best pitching seasons in history.
How much the Mets could get out of deGrom and Scherzer was the central issue for the 2022 Mets. DeGrom had the worrisome arm. Scherzer finished last season with what he called a fatigued arm and could not start NLCS Game 6 for the Dodgers. The Mets signed him anyway for $130 million over three years. Scherzer is 37, deGrom 34 in June. In the fantasy world, the Mets would get 60 starts from the duo and — if so — it would be hard to imagine the team not being one of six NL playoff teams
But like the Nets this year as games disappeared from the schedule without their Big 3 getting together much, the upside for at least the regular season began to fade. What are the Mets if the duo makes just 50 starts or 45 or 40 …?
Especially because rotation depth was a concern of the new baseball operations department. It is one reason the Mets obtained Chris Bassitt, who feels from the godsend department now. Steve Cohen is touchy about becoming the first team with a payroll to swell over $300 million, so authorizing a trade now is not impossible, but difficult. Also, it is not like the market is teeming with starters less than a week until the season opens.
So, the initial move is to put Scherzer into the season opener. Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker will be the next three in some order. Either Tylor Megill, David Peterson or Trevor Williams will occupy the fifth spot. The Mets liked what they saw in spring training from Jose Butto and Connor Grey and will hope they continue to impress in their minors to provide further depth.
But there is just no replacing deGrom, who is the best pitcher in the world when right — even better than Scherzer, which is saying something. But not being right has an impact beyond the Mets chances this season for deGrom. He can opt out after the 2022 campaign, but will he walk away from the two years at $63 million remaining if he is not sound at least for the final four-or-so months of the season?
Also, every start not made will further impair a Hall-of-Fame candidacy which already was going to be weighted down by too few starts, innings and wins. Scherzer, a near shoo-in for Cooperstown, begins this season with 200 more career regular-season starts then deGrom.
That differential will now grow. There will be no Mets dynamic duo to open this season. Perhaps the additions of Scherzer and Bassitt will cover for the Mets, but with a lockout-created shortened spring every team is bracing for pitching injuries, especially early, especially in cold weather. So the Mets’ need to avoid further rotation injuries just swelled into importance.
It is where the Mets are now. Those wonderful dreams of winter have just smashed into reality.
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