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New York City public schools are on track to lose close to 30,000 students by this fall, according to new city data.
Projections from the Office of Student Enrollment, shared with The Post Friday, showed the city Department of Education expects to enroll roughly 28,100 fewer students this fall, and another 2,300 students by the end of the school year.
The figures account for students in all geographic district schools — but do not include those enrolled in charter schools, schools for kids with disabilities, and other nontraditional public programs.
“Here’s what’s happening with the Department of Education,” Mayor Eric Adams said at an unrelated event this week.
“We have a massive hemorrhaging of students — massive hemorrhaging. We’re in a very dangerous place in the number of students that we are dropping,” he said.
By the end of next school year, the largest school district in the nation expects to serve a student population of just 760,439 children, the data show.
The second largest public school system — the Los Angeles Unified School District — enrolls over 600,000 students in kindergarten through twelfth grade, according to its website.
The DOE on Friday doubled down on School Chancellor David Banks’ focus on responding to students’ needs and making families feel heard to stem the tide.
Roughly 120,000 students have fled the public school system over the last five years, according to the DOE.
Officials also pointed to national trends of decreased enrollment, attributing that to diminished birthrates, a lack of affordability, and relocations during the pandemic.
Adding that those problems can’t be solved in half of a year, they were optimistic about plans so far and in the works to lure families back to the public school system.
While most schools agreed with the enrollment projections, 656 schools citywide submitted feedback on the estimates for this fall.
More than a third of those schools reported expecting even fewer students than the DOE initially calculated, the data showed.
Still, 426 school administrators told the DOE they expect more students than the agency projected — that could have major impacts on schools’ preparations for the fall.
The DOE uses the projections to calculate how much money schools get under a controversial school funding formula that Banks has promised to revisit.
If those numbers are an undercount — as advocates and now, after approving the cuts, members of the City Council have suggested — that could hinder hiring decisions that happen over the summer, even if budgets are later right-sized for the number of students who show up next school year.
“CSA has been advocating that appeals should be heard right away,” said Craig DiFolco, a spokesperson for the Council of School Supervisors and Administrators.
Last year, close to half of schools saw fewer students than the DOE expected. Just 10% saw more, the data showed.
Meanwhile, city charter schools have seen record growth for the past six years, The Post has reported.
Overall enrollment has increased by 1.3% this year, according to figures from the New York City Charter School Center, and by 9% since the start of the pandemic.
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