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We talk a lot about the betting market’s love for the Penguins on Line Change, Action Network’s NHL betting podcast.
Every morning, seemingly without fail, the Penguins will take money and their price will shorten. The bettors who have been steaming the Penguins have reaped the benefits thus far, as Pittsburgh was 17-2 in its last 19 heading into Thursday.
But Friday’s home contest against the Red Wings should provide patient punters with a decent opportunity to fade the steam. Not only is Pittsburgh on a back-to-back, but the Penguins will likely start Casey DeSmith in goal against Detroit. DeSmith has struggled to an .886 save percentage and a -7.98 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in nine games so far this season.
With an expected goaltending battle between DeSmith and Alex Nedeljkovic (.913 save percentage and +5.8 GSAx), the Wings should have a decided edge in net on Friday night, which opens up a viable path to success for the pooch.
Favorites have dominated in the NHL over the past two seasons, but this is a good spot to buck the trend.
The play: Red Wings, +190.
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