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Thursday night provided just the latest example of a Rangers victory not aligning with the peripheral numbers that are supposedly meant to measure a team’s true performance, independent of the scoreboard.
So while the Rangers beat the Capitals, 4-1, while in command most of the match, in which every goal came at full strength, they came up short in the five-on-five attempts share (41.56 percent), shot share (38 percent), scoring chances (44.19 percent), high danger chances (45.45 percent) and expected goals (44.01 percent), as measured by Natural Stat Trick.
MSG-TV analyst Steve Valiquette, using numbers from his own company’s operation, went on Twitter to call it a “stolen win,” by virtue of Igor Shesterkin outplaying Ilya Samsonov.
Overall, the Rangers reside in the NHL’s nether regions pretty much across the board when it comes to analytics, with the most ardent believers having issues legitimizing the 33-13-5 record the team will take into its Saturday afternoon confrontation at Pittsburgh.
And while the Rangers, of course, do want more puck possession and would like to limit chances against, they have found a formula for consistent success. If Shesterkin, whose save percentage of .940 is veering into historic territory, is a large part of that equation, his teammates are not apologizing for that.
“I’m not a big fan of analytics as it is, to be honest with you,” Ryan Reaves said following practice Friday. “I look at results.
“I guess that, sometimes, you don’t play the right way and still get the result, but I think if you look at our team this season, tied for the most comeback wins in the league, we’re resilient. There’s not a lot that rattles us. I think we know how to play a full 60 minutes, which is very important going into the playoffs.“I think the resilience of this team has helped us all season. Maybe we’re just a better rush team. I don’t know. I don’t really look at [analytics].”
“The ebbs and flows of games, you can’t get too high and you can’t get too low,” said Reaves, who has been to the playoffs each of the last 10 years. “I know it’s an old saying, but it’s really important to learn that before you get into the playoffs.
“Whether it’s within a game or within a series, you can be down two games and you have to make sure to bounce back in Game 3, or, if you’re down two goals in a game, make sure you get the next one.
Head coach Gerard Gallant, who created a checking line with Reaves and Barclay Goodrow flanking Kevin Rooney to match against Alex Ovechkin’s unit Thursday, said he was surprised by the stats attached to the victory, which extended the club’s point-streak to six games (5-0-1).
“It’s funny, I thought we were in control of the game most of the night, and then I looked at the game sheet this morning and saw they outshot us, 17-5, in the third period, but it didn’t feel like that when I was coaching,” Gallant said. “It didn’t feel like that at all.“I like the way we played. We were quick. Sometimes, when you’re looking at your opponent, the mental aspect comes into it. We were ready to play that game.”
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Shesterkin’s work allows the Rangers to be resilient. The goaltender is 12-1-1 in his 14 starts tracking back to New Year’s Eve, through which he has recorded a 1.75 goals against average and .948 save percentage. Overall, he is 25-5-3 with a 1.98 goals against average and that .940 save percentage that would rank as the fifth best in NHL history. He is a leading candidate for the Hart Trophy and the frontrunner for the Vezina.
“You need a good goaltender to win, and obviously, we have one of the best in the league,” Reaves said. “I think a lot of people just like to say, ‘Oh, your goaltender is holding you in games,’ but he’s part of the team.
“We need that guy going just like we need every other guy going. He’s playing unbelievable, he’s definitely stolen some games, but other guys in that locker room have done the same thing. You need every piece going during the season and into the playoffs, and definitely in the playoffs.”
The first meeting of the season against the Penguins represents the opener of a back-to-back that concludes with a Garden match Sunday against the Canucks. Shesterkin will get one of the starts while Alexandar Georgiev, whose 40.5 seconds of relief against the Bruins on Feb. 15 represents his only action since he last started on Jan. 27, will get the other.
You might assume that Shesterkin would get the Pittsburgh game, but maybe not. A little over month ago in a similar situation, Gallant went with Georgiev at Carolina in the first of a back-to-back before Shesterkin got the call the next night against the Coyotes.
“I’m not concerned about [the gap],” Gallant said. “He’s done it before this year. He’s working hard in practice.
“One of the two games he plays this weekend, I’m not concerned.”
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