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Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin, the presumptive Republican nominee for governor, released an internal campaign poll Monday claiming he can beat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
The campaign survey shows Zeldin with 45.5 percent of the vote to 44 percent for Hochul, with the rest undecided. The hypothetical matchup is within the poll’s margin of error, which means the race is a dead heat.
The survey of 800 voters, conducted by John McLaughlin & Associates, found that crime is the No. 1 issue, with one in five respondents citing it as their top concern.
Another 17 percent of voters said taxes were their top concern.
Those are good issues for Republicans after Democrats who run state government raised taxes last year and approved the unpopular no-cash bail law.
Zeldin, who was voted the nominee at the state Republican Party convention earlier this month, must first contend with a potential primary race against Andrew Giuliani, former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino and businessman Harry Wilson.
The general election outcome depends on turnout — and where it comes from in the state. Democrats outnumber Republicans better than 2 to 1 in New York with a growing number of registered independents.
McLaughlin says public polls typically oversample the vote from New York City and under-sample Republicans.
His poll has 34 percent of the statewide vote coming from New York City.
During the 2018 governor’s race and midterm congressional elections, 1 million more voters turned out in New York City than in 2014 and Andrew Cuomo’s margin of victory jumped from 14 percentage points over GOP candidate Astorino in 2014 to 23 percentage points over GOP rival Marc Molinaro four years later..
Democratic turnout was heavier than normal in 2018, when former President Donald Trump, unpopular in New York, was in office.
But now Joe Biden is president, in charge during the worst inflation in five decades, exploding crime in urban areas while a belligerent Russia invades Ukraine. Biden’s problems could drive up GOP turnout and depress Democratic turnout this fall.
The poll has Biden underwater even in blue New York with only a 43 percent approval rating and 55 percent disapproval. Hochul had a 44 percent approval rating and 48 percent disapproval.
The poll says 51 percent of voters prefer a Republican candidate to serve as a check and balance to the Democrat-controlled Legislature.
“Over the last year, we have built an unparalleled movement, powered by thousands of volunteers, tens of thousands of grassroots donations and scores of New Yorkers who are waking up and all in to Save Our State,” said Zeldin.
“These numbers aren’t because of luck. They’re thanks to hard work, the right message, strategy and execution, and also taking absolutely nothing for granted. As we continue to get our message out coming off of this month’s Republican and Conservative Party conventions and after airing television and radio ads statewide since the beginning of February, it’s never been more clear that we have the issues on our side, we have the momentum of our side, and there’s a big red wave headed straight for New York in 2022.”
Hochul — who replaced disgraced ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo after he resigned amid sexual harassment accusations last August — is the heavy favorite to win her Democratic primary against city Public Advocate Jumaane Wiliams and Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi.
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